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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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🌤️ Weather Summary: Wednesday, October 28th
Warm and dry weather continues for a few more days, but changes are coming this weekend and next week. Rain is finally returning to the forecast!
☀️ Wednesday and Thursday: Expect another couple of beautiful autumn days across the Quad State region. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Winds will remain light, and patchy morning fog is possible. No rain is expected.
Check out this map.
Here’s how to read the temperature graph:
Red bars: Days with above-average temperatures.
Blue bars: Days with below-average temperatures.
Keep in mind that our normal temperatures gradually drop throughout October.
October 1st October 15th October 31st
🌤️ Friday: Another warm day with temperatures near 80 degrees. Dry weather should continue.
🎃 Saturday – Halloween: Rain chances have decreased somewhat as the latest forecast guidance suggests the arrival of rain may be delayed.
Most of Saturday should remain dry. Showers may begin moving into portions of the region Saturday evening or Saturday night.
Rain chances Saturday evening are currently around 30% to 40% in southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee, with lower chances earlier in the evening.
Peak chances on Saturday afternoon will be across southern Missouri, the Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Decreasing chances during the afternoon over the rest of the area.
It is still too early to guarantee dry weather for Halloween activities, but the latest trends are a little more encouraging. Especially early on.
🌧️ Saturday night and Sunday: Rain chances increase across the region, especially during the morning hours. This looks to be one of the better opportunities for widespread rainfall.
Rainfall totals could approach one inch in portions of western Kentucky, with locally higher amounts possible.
🌡️ Temperatures: Once the weekend system arrives, afternoon highs will cool from around 80 degrees into the lower 70s. Overnight temperatures will remain mild, generally in the 50s.
🌧️ Next Week: Another potentially significant rain-producing storm system could develop across the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
This system will have plenty of Gulf moisture to work with and could produce several inches of rain in some areas of the central United States.
Current forecast guidance suggests the Quad State region could receive another 0.75 to 1.4 inches of rain from this system, although totals remain uncertain.
It is too early to know exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur.
📌 Bottom Line
After an extended stretch of dry weather, our weather pattern is finally changing.
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☀️ Wednesday through Friday: Warm, dry, and pleasant.
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🎃 Saturday: Mostly dry conditions possible, with rain chances increasing in the afternoon and evening.
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🌧️ Saturday night into Sunday: A better chance of widespread showers.
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🌡️ Early next week: Cooler afternoons, with highs closer to 70 degrees.
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☔ Next week: Another storm system could bring additional beneficial rainfall.
The biggest forecast questions are exactly when the weekend rain will arrive and how much rain we will receive next week.
I’ll continue fine-tuning the forecast as new data arrives.
Soil moisture shows that it is VERY dry across our region. This is a better indicator of flash drought vs the drought monitor (which shows longer period drought).
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
October 28th through November 2nd
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NO.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NO.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? LOW RISK. I very small chance on Saturday night. I will monitor Monday night into Wednesday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures fall below 32 degrees? NO.
6. Will temperatures fall below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Will the wind chill fall below 10 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill fall below 0 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> When rain is forecast, rain chances will vary across the forecast area. County-by-county rain probabilities are below. Scroll down.
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are models.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Guidance
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC Guidance
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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