.
Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
🌤️ Weather Summary: Tuesday, October 27th
Another stretch of warm, dry autumn weather is ahead for the Quad State region, but rain chances will increase just in time for Halloween weekend.
☀️ Tuesday through Friday: Warm and Dry
Our beautiful autumn weather will continue through the workweek. Expect a mixture of sunshine and clouds, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees later in the week.
Overnight temperatures will gradually warm into the 50s.
🌫️ Morning Fog
Patchy fog will remain possible each morning, especially near lakes, rivers, and other bodies of water. Some locations could experience reduced visibility during the early morning hours.
🔥 Dry Conditions Continue
We certainly need some rain! The extended stretch of dry weather has left the ground quite dry. Thankfully, winds will remain light, helping limit the wildfire danger.
🌧️ Halloween Weekend: Rain Chances Increase
Our attention is turning to Tropical Storm Vance, currently located off the western coast of Mexico.
Moisture from this system is expected to spread northeast into the Quad State region over the weekend.
There are still questions about exactly when the rain will arrive.
Here’s what we’re watching:
-
🎃 Saturday (Halloween): Rain chances will gradually increase, especially across southeast Missouri. Many communities may remain dry through much of the day and evening.
-
🌧️ Saturday Night: Rain chances increase to around 40% to 60%. Southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee have the highest chance of rain during Halloween activities.
-
☔ Sunday: Showers remain possible across the region. Some locations could receive periods of steady rainfall.
The farther northeast you live, the better the chance rain will hold off until after most Halloween activities end.
💧 How Much Rain Could Fall?
Current guidance suggests rainfall totals averaging around 0.25 to 0.50 inches from Saturday evening through Sunday.
Some locations could receive more, especially if deeper tropical moisture moves into the region. That would be a bit more likely over Kentucky and Tennessee.
📅 Looking Ahead to Next Week
The weather pattern may remain active into early next week as another storm system develops over the central United States.
That will bring additional opportunities for rain, although confidence in the timing and placement of that system remains low. Those events are still six+ days out.
At this time, there are no signals for severe weather in our local area. As always, monitor updates.
Temperatures should remain above normal through at least the first part of next week.
☀️ Bottom Line: Enjoy the warm and dry weather through Friday! Our best opportunity for much-needed rainfall arrives Saturday night into Sunday. The exact timing remains uncertain, especially for Halloween evening. I’ll continue fine-tuning the forecast as newer data arrives.
🎃 Planning outdoor Halloween activities? Don’t cancel those plans just yet. Some communities may get through most or all of their activities before the rain arrives.
As of Tuesday morning, there are the latest rain probabilities for the weekend.
Keep in mind, there is a four to six hour difference in the different guidance packages. Adjustments are still possible.
Rain is likely Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. It is just a matter of the exact timing.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
October 27th through November 2nd
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NO.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NO.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? UNLIKELY. I will monitor Saturday into Sunday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures fall below 32 degrees? NO.
6. Will temperatures fall below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Will the wind chill fall below 10 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill fall below 0 degrees? NO.
.
.
Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> When rain is forecast, rain chances will vary across the forecast area. County-by-county rain probabilities are below. Scroll down.
.
Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
.
.
Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
This is through 7 AM Sunday. A bit more may fall after this. Generally, my going forecast has been 0.25″ to 0.50″. Locally higher.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
This is through 7 AM Sunday. A bit more may fall after this. Generally, my going forecast has been 0.25″ to 0.50″. Locally higher.
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are models.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Guidance
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC Guidance
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
