Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 22, 2026: Much nicer weather has arrived.

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Key Seven-Day Weather Information

If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

HAPPY AUTUMN!  Autumn arrives this evening.  Finally.

A quick morning shower and thunderstorm update.
6 AM Tuesday.

This is what radar looked like at 6 AM.

An area of showers and thunderstorms has formed over southeast Missouri. It is moving slowly east-southeast. It is expected to weaken over the coming hours. For now, it is holding steady in strength.

There is some question as to how much of it holds together as it moves farther east.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning. The cold front has moved through most of the area. It feels nicer outside. Less humid.

Clouds are expected to clear over time today as well.

Tranquil weather will be with us through next Tuesday.  Nice temperatures.  Nice highs. Nice lows.  Nice humidity levels.  Light wind conditions.

We have turned the corner with the heat waves.

Not saying we won’t still have some very warm days; that is likely.  What we won’t have are days and days of 90- to 100-degree weather.  Thank goodness.

Enjoy this weather!

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️

September 22nd through September 28th

A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.

⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NO. 

🌪️ Current tornado riskNONE.   

🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.

Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter..


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Seven-Day Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.

2. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  NO.

3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.     

4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees?  NO.

5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees?  NO. 

6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)

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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.


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⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.

⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.

Eastern View

Double-click on the images to enlarge them.

Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)

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What is the % chance of rain?

These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.

* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain.  It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

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Double-click maps to enlarge them.

Today.  Tuesday.
Coverage will be higher than shown  over far SE MO, far western KY, and northwest TN.

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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right.  Take the general idea from this animation.  These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move.  In the end, they are a model.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr


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Here is a map to help you find your general location.

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NAM 3K

* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right.  Use this animation for the general idea.  These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move.  In the end, they are a model.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways to receive severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon, it will not disturb you.
Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

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