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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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🔥 Late-Season Heat Wave Continues
Changes are on the way. We will have to wait until next week.
The main weather story this week is unusually hot September weather.
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A strong area of high pressure will remain over the region, bringing temperatures more typical of the middle of summer.
🌡️ Today through Thursday: High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 90s, and a few locations could even approach 100°. Overnight temperatures will only fall into the lower to middle 70s. Some record highs and record warm low temperatures could be tied or broken.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight and tomorrow over the far northern portions of southeast Missouri and the far northern portions of southern Illinois. Most areas will remain dry.
🥵 Today and Wednesday will be especially uncomfortable. High humidity combined with temperatures in the 90s will produce heat index values around 105° across much of the region. The current Heat Advisory continues through 7 PM Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday: Temperatures will remain very hot, with highs generally in the upper 90s. Humidity should gradually decrease, so heat index values may not be quite as high. The Heat Advisory could eventually be extended through Friday.
🔥 Saturday: The heat will begin to slowly ease, but it will still be hot. Highs are expected in the lower to mid-90s.
🍂 Sunday into Monday: Finally, some noticeable relief! A cold front should move through the region. Highs should fall into the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday, followed by the lower to mid-80s Monday.
⛈️ The front could also bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.
Bottom line: 🥵 Dangerous heat today through at least Wednesday → 🌡️ upper 90s possible Thursday and Friday → 🔥 still hot Saturday → 🍂 cooler weather begins arriving Sunday and especially Monday.
Let me show you that somewhat cooler air for next week.
These are the EC ensembles. The colored numbers are the averages of 50 model runs. As you can see, we go from widespread nineties this week to widespread eighties next week.
That will feel a lot better after our recent heat wave.
Humidity levels will be lower, as well.
Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Let’s hope this verifies. We could use a break!
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
September 15th through September 21st
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. I will monitor today and tonight over northern southeast Missouri and northern southern Illinois. Some thunderstorms are possible.
A chance of lightning from Sunday into Monday along a new cold front.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through at least Saturday. Perhaps on Sunday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through Thursday. I will monitor Friday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Let’s Look At The Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Eastern View
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Today (Tuesday)
Wednesday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model
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Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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NAM 3k Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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