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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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🔥 Dangerous Late-Season Heat Wave This Week
The big weather story this week will be a dangerous stretch of unusually hot and humid weather.
The heat begins across parts of the region today and expands across the entire area Tuesday and Wednesday. The hot weather will likely continue beyond Wednesday.
Today: The hottest conditions will be across southeast Missouri and far western Kentucky, where highs will reach the lower to middle 90s. High humidity will make it feel close to 105° in some locations. A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the region.
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Tuesday and Wednesday: The heat expands across the entire region. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 90s, with heat index values around 105°.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire region Tuesday through Wednesday evening. The advisory could eventually be extended into Thursday.
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A couple of showers and thunderstorms could occur Tuesday night and Wednesday morning over northern southeast Missouri and northern southern Illinois. See the rain probability graphics farther down in the weather blog.
⚠️ This is unusual heat for the middle of September. There is extra concern because many schools, sporting events, festivals, and outdoor activities are underway this time of year. Anyone spending time outside should take the heat seriously, drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, and limit time in direct sunshine when possible.
In fact, according to available local records, this is the latest in the season that a Heat Advisory has been issued for our region in at least 20 years. This level of heat and humidity is not typical for the middle of September.
🔥 The heat will continue into the weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 90s could continue through next weekend. Humidity should gradually decrease later in the week, however, which would bring heat index values down into the middle to upper 90s.
🌵 Dry weather is another concern. Meaningful rain chances may not return until Sunday at the earliest. The extended period of hot, dry weather could increase drought concerns.
I am watching next week for highs in the 80s. That will feel a lot better than 90s. Let’s hope it happens.
Bottom line: 🔥 Dangerous late-season heat builds today → 🥵 widespread heat Tuesday and Wednesday → ⚠️ heat index around 105° → 🌡️ unusually hot weather could continue through next weekend → 🌵 little or no rain for most of the week.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
September 14th through September 20th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? ISOLATED. I will monitor Tuesday night over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.
A chance of isolated lightning Friday and Saturday. I will monitor Thursday night and Sunday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through at least Saturday. Perhaps on Sunday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through Thursday. I will monitor Friday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Let’s Look At The Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
NOTES:
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Tuesday night
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
Hrrr model
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING
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NAM 3k Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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