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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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We do have some more thunderstorm chances. Some areas have received 1 to 3 inches of rain. Others have received very little. Typical for late summer and early autumn.
More heat next week!
Today: A weak front will remain just south of the region, keeping scattered showers and a few thunderstorms around. Rain chances will range from 20–60%, with the best chances across southern areas.
See the probability graphics below.
Tonight: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible, with the better chances shifting into eastern portions of the region. Again, see the graphics below.
Saturday: More scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially across western Kentucky, southwest Indiana, and southeast Illinois. Rain chances will range from 30–70%, with the best chance for storms during the afternoon and early evening.
☀️ Sunday through early Tuesday: High pressure will take control, bringing dry weather and warmer-than-normal temperatures. Hot again. Autumn is taking its time.
⛈️ Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday: Another cold front will approach from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances will first increase across northern and western portions of the region.
Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will depend heavily on cloud and thunderstorm coverage.
🌧️ Thursday: Rain and thunderstorm chances may spread across the entire region. Current chances are around 50–60% north and 30–40% south. Uncertainty remains about how far south the front will move.
🌡️ Temperatures: Today will be the coolest day of the next week, with highs in the 80s. Temperatures will warm back above normal this weekend and remain warm through at least the middle of next week.
I continue to monitor mid- to late September for a few stronger fronts with cooler temperatures.
Guidance continues to point towards September 17th to 22nd for a big front.
Here are the averages of 50 model runs. Highs and lows. Those are in the middle (colored area).
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Bottom line: 🌦️ Scattered rain today → ⛈️ more scattered storms Saturday → ☀️ dry and warmer Sunday through early Tuesday → 🌧️ rain chances return Tuesday afternoon and increase later in the week.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
September 11th through September 18th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered. A chance today into tomorrow. Another chance Tuesday through at least Wednesday. I will monitor Thursday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT ANTICIPATED. Summer storms can produce locally heavy rain, as always.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Highs may approach or exceed 90 degrees from Saturday through at least Wednesday. Perhaps Thursday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? MONITOR. I will monitor Saturday through Tuesday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Let’s Look At The Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
NOTES:
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Thursday
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Saturday
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Saturday night
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
Hrrr model
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NAM 3k Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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