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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, then please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
** A few of the thunderstorms today, tonight, and tomorrow could produce damaging wind gusts. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App and sign up for www.tornadocall.com **
🔥 Hot and Humid Today — Storm Chances Increasing
Today will be very hot and humid. Southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will push temperatures into the 94–101° range. With the humidity, it will feel more like 102–110°. A Heat Advisory is in effect from late this morning through early evening.
⛈️ Storm chances will begin increasing today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as midday, but not everyone will see rain. Storm chances rise significantly tonight, especially across northern portions of the region.
🌧️ Thursday: The cold front will slowly move across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue, with the best rain chances shifting into western Kentucky and other southern portions of the region Thursday afternoon and night.
⚠️ A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and Thursday. The main concern will be damaging wind gusts. Today’s Marginal Risk covers most of our region except southern portions of the Pennyrile. Thursday’s Marginal Risk includes southern Missouri, far western Kentucky, and extreme southern Illinois. See the graphics below.
🌦️ Friday through the weekend: The front may move back north, keeping our weather unsettled. There will be occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, with a smaller chance Sunday.
☀️ Sunday night and Monday currently look dry. Another cold front could bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into the middle of next week.
🌡️ Temperatures: Friday should briefly turn closer to normal. The heat returns over the weekend, with highs mostly in the lower 90s, followed by lower to middle 90s Monday.
Bottom line: 🔥 Dangerous heat today → ⛈️ increasing storm chances tonight → 🌧️ storms continue Thursday → 🌦️ unsettled at times Friday and Saturday → ☀️ drier Sunday night and Monday.
🌧️ Best rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday.
🌡️ Less hot and more seasonable late in the week and early next week.
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In the long range, the ensembles are showing some cooling. Let’s hope this verifies.
The middle numbers in color are the average highs and lows of 50+ models.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
September 9th through September 15th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: SCATTERED. A few of the thunderstorms today, tonight, and Thursday could produce gusty winds. I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm warning for damaging wind gusts.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered. A chance today, tonight, Thursday, and Thursday night. A few thunderstorms are possible this weekend. Another chance on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT ANTICIPATED. Summer storms can produce locally heavy rain, as always.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Highs in the 90s today. I will monitor Friday through Wednesday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Let’s Look At The Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
NOTES:
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Wednesday
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Wednesday night
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Thursday
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Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday night
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Sunday
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
Hrrr model
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NAM 3k Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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