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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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No changes to the going forecast.
It will be hot all week. Humidity levels won’t be as high as recent heat events. However, the actual air temperature will be hotter.
Widespread 90s are likely into the weekend. Expect numerous days in the mid-to-upper 90s. I can’t rule out a few stations hitting 100 degrees.
Yesterday, some locations hit their highest temperatures of the year, thus far. The same could happen again today.
Heat index values will range from 102 to 108 degrees. Remember, the heat index is more important to the body than the actual air temperature.
Use care if you must work outdoors. Check on the elderly. Make sure your outdoor pets have water and shade.
The only relief could come from a few showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. For now, we will stick with 20% to 30% chances. I have removed Friday’s chances.
Not everyone will see rain. But where rain and clouds thicken, it will be several degrees cooler.
A weak cold front will push across the region on Sunday. Temperatures could be slightly lower on Monday and Tuesday. For now, it still looks like widespread upper 80s to mid-90s will be the norm.
Hopefully, the data trends a tad cooler.
Here are some graphics
Double-click on the image to enlarge it.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
September 1st through September 8th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NONE
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. Saturday night and Sunday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Highs in the 90s into the weekend. Perhaps into next week.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through at least Saturday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Let’s Look At The Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
NOTES:
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Friday night
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Saturday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
NAM 3K Model
NOTHING ON THE SHORT-RANGE FUTURE-CAST RADAR
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RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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