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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
- ⛈️ Showers and thunderstorms return today, mainly across southeast Missouri and western parts of the region. Rain and storm chances will increase tonight, with a 60% to 80% chance across much of the area. Scattered showers and storms will continue through the weekend, with 30% to 60% chances.
- 🌡️ It will be much cooler this weekend. Because of the clouds and rain, some areas may not even reach 80 degrees. In fact, a few locations could challenge record cool daytime high temperatures for early August.
- ⚠️ A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. The highest risk is across southeast Missouri, where there is about a 15% chance of severe storms. A smaller 5% chance extends into southern Illinois and far western Kentucky.
- 💨 The main severe weather threat is damaging wind gusts, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
- 🌧️ Some storms could also produce heavy rainfall, and a few areas could receive more than 2 inches of rain, which may cause localized flooding.
📅 Weekend Outlook
The cold front will move through the region Saturday morning, bringing cooler air behind it.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible through Saturday and Sunday, but the risk for severe weather will decrease after the front passes.
The primary severe threat on Saturday will be to our east. I will keep an eye on it.
🌤️ Early Next Week
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms may continue into early and mid next week, although there is still some uncertainty about how much rain will develop.
Temperatures will gradually warm back up:
- 🌡️ This weekend: Highs mainly in the 70s to near 80 degrees
- 🌡️ Early next week: Highs in the middle to upper 80s
- 🥵 By the middle to late next week: Many areas could reach 90 degrees again
Bottom line: Expect showers and thunderstorms today through the weekend, with the best chance for rain tonight. A few storms could become severe this evening, especially across southeast Missouri, before much cooler-than-normal weather settles in for the weekend.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
July 31st through August 7th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: LOW. There is a low risk of a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over mainly southeast Missouri. The risk over the rest of the area is even lower.
The primary concern will be high wind gusts. A small chance of a brief tornado. Overall, this does not appear to be a big severe weather event of any sort.
The risk on Saturday (for severe weather) should stay to our east. I will monitor it.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for later today and this evening. The window for severe weather is only a few hours.
Again, this appears to be a low-end risk. The yellow zone has the greatest risk of a few warnings. Mainly for strong and gusty winds.
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🌪️ Current tornado risk: LOW. Any tornado threat would be brief. A short-lived low-end tornado is possible. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning today into next week. The peak chances for lightning appear to be later this afternoon into Saturday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain. If showers and thunderstorms train over the same area, then some localized issues could develop.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. Isolated today. Another chance next Wednesday through Friday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Use these graphics as a general guide.
Most of this will fall from this afternoon through Sunday. As you can see, the totals have come down a bit from previous days.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Tonight
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Saturday
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Saturday night
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Sunday
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Sunday night
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Monday
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Monday night
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Tuesday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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NAM 3K Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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