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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
A large area of high pressure is covering much of the United States, bringing heat to the northern part of the country. Our region is not expected to see the worst of that heat, but it will still become hot and humid over the next several days. Summer!
A weak weather system over the Mid-South is sending a few showers into the southern parts of the Quad State region this morning.
Today’s rain chances will be a bit higher west-southwest vs northeast.
Here is today’s rain probability graphic.
⛈️ Rain Chances Through Friday
This weather system will slowly move closer to our area, bringing more scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across the southwestern counties.
Rain chances will become more widespread on Thursday, then shift toward the Evansville Tri-State area on Friday.
Most storms will develop during the afternoon and evening due to daytime heating. While widespread severe weather is not expected, any storm could produce:
- 🌧️ Heavy downpours
- ⚡ Frequent lightning
- 💨 Brief gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph.
Because the air will be very humid, some storms could produce heavy rainfall in a short amount of time, even though many areas may stay dry.
🌦️ Weekend Outlook
Another weather system moving through the Great Lakes could increase rain chances Friday night before moving away.
Over the weekend, hotter weather will return as high pressure builds into the Deep South. With more sunshine and fewer clouds, afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s.
Combined with the humidity, it will feel like the lower 100s during the hottest part of the day.
🌤️ Early Next Week
A cold front may move toward the Quad State region early next week, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms and possibly a little relief from the heat. However, it is still uncertain how far south the front will move, so the forecast could change.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
July 15th through July 21st
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NO.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. Scattered lightning risk this week. The chances will be a bit higher from Wednesday through Friday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Scattered into the weekend.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Thursday into the weekend. Heat index values could hover around 100 degrees. Perhaps higher.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here are the 4 AM temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
Some areas will receive higher totals. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Take a general idea from these graphics.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the four-day rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Thursday
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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NAM 3K Model
Models won’t pick up pop-up storms all that well.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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