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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
- ⚠️ There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight across the western counties. The rest of the region is under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5).
- 💨 The main severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph. Flash flooding, as well.
- ⚠️ On Saturday, the southern counties will remain under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for a few severe storms.
- 🌧️ Several rounds of heavy rain are expected through the weekend. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible, with some areas receiving much higher amounts.
- 🌊 A Flood Watch remains in effect through late Saturday night because of the ongoing risk of flash flooding.
🌦️ Weather Details
Showers and thunderstorms already moving across the area this morning will continue for a while longer. These storms are producing very heavy rainfall, and areas that are hit by multiple storms could experience flash flooding.
Some counties received 5 to 10 inches of rain overnight.
After a break in the rain this morning, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening today, and again on Saturday.
Some of today’s storms could become strong to severe. The greatest concern is damaging wind gusts, although heavy rain and frequent lightning will also accompany many storms.
Because storms may repeatedly move over the same locations, the flood threat will continue through the weekend.
🌤️ Looking Ahead
The weather should become drier early next week, although there will still be a 20% to 30% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm at times.
Temperatures will start out near normal for this time of year, then gradually warm through the week, with highs returning to around 90 degrees as hotter weather builds back into the region.
Some very heavy rain totals overnight. Here are some radar estimates of the heaviest totals.
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
July 10th through July 16th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: LIKELY. Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Another low-end chance on Saturday. Damaging wind and quarter-sized hail are the primary concerns. Heavy rain and lightning, as well. Flash flooding.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: UNLIKELY.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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More information on the severe threat.
Today and tonight (Friday)
We are at a level one and two risk of severe weather. Level five is the highest risk. Level one is the lowest.
The light green zone is where thunderstorms are possible but are likely to remain below severe levels. Monitor updates, as these graphics are often updated.
Some of the storms could produce damaging wind gusts. Hail, as well.
Monitor your Beau Dodson WeatherTalk App.
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A flood covers almost the entire region from this afternoon through Saturday.
Heavy summer thunderstorms can produce enough rain to cause pockets of flooding.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely today into tomorrow night. A lower chance Sunday into next week.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? YES. Some of the rain will be heavy today through Saturday. Flash flooding will be possible in some counties. Some of the thunderstorms will produce one to three inches of rain per hour. Avoid flooded roadways.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today. Next Tuesday through Thursday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Today (depending on clouds and rain). Next week, as well.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here are the 4 AM temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
Some areas will receive much higher totals. Some locations could see five or more inches of rain over the next three to four days.
Take a general idea from these graphics.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the four-day rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Friday night
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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NAM 3K Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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