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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
May 29th through June 5th
Current risk: None.
Current confidence level: High.
Comments: At this time, there are no tornado risks in the charts.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. On and off chances into the weekend. With time, chances decrease. Lower rain probabilities north vs south. See the graphics below.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. No. Spring thunderstorms can produce gusty winds.
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
School is out for the summer.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
See the rainfall probability graphics below.
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Forecast discussion
- Some additional shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend. Lower chances on Sunday and Monday.
- There will be a wide range of chances for precipitation. Lower chances north. Higher chances south southwest.
- Much of next week looks dry. Warm.
- See the rain probability graphics below for each 12-hour time period.
- Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it won’t storm. It means that many locations will remain dry. A few spots will receive precipitation.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
Scattered showers and thunderstorms today across portions of the region. Lower rain chances north. Higher south. See the graphics below.
Severe weather is not anticipated. That is the good news. Thunderstorms will produce lightning, of course.
Here are the rain chances (% chance) for today and tonight. It will vary greatly.
Notice chances are small over my north northeast counties. They are much higher as you travel into southeast Missouri, the southern portions of western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
Today
Tonight
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Live Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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Dew points
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Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside. Humid.
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Seven-Day Rainfall Totals
Rainfall total maps for the next seven days.
These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
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An unsettled forecast for the area.
A frontal boundary continues to fluctuate across our region. Drifting north and south.
This front is the reason for the shower and thunderstorm chances over the coming days.
I have to admit that it has been a pain trying to forecast the % chance of rain for each county. The exact placement of the front will determine who receives rain and who does not.
Here is what the radars looked like at 5 AM.
As you can see, the system is rotating counter-clockwise. Thus, some of the showers and thunderstorms are moving southeast to northwest. A little odd, but it happens a few times each year.
The live radar links are above. Scroll back up for those. They are also found at the bottom of this post.
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Rain will redevelop over our region later today. On and off chances will continue into the weekend.
Chances will peak this afternoon and tonight.
If you have outdoor plans today into the weekend, then monitor the live weather radars. Throw a rain jacket and umbrella into the car. Then, you will be prepared.
Warm, humid air will stay in the region through Monday as a weather front and low-pressure system remain nearby.
The good news is that severe weather is not in the forecast. It has been a very odd May. Usually, this is peak severe weather season for our region. This year, it has been quiet. Not just here, but across much of the nation. Something to be thankful for.
Drought conditions have improved a bit. Additional rain will help.
I realize some of you have received quite a bit of rain over the past ten days. Drought takes time to build and takes time to exit.
Yes, your grass is growing, but the subsoil can be dry.
We need regular rains to knock the drought out entirely.
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As mentioned above, the weather front is expected to remain mainly south and southwest of the region, and atmospheric wind conditions are expected to remain weak. Because of this, the threat of severe weather is low.
The main concerns with storms will be locally heavy rain and lightning. Perhaps some gusty winds from collapsing storms.
The atmosphere contains a lot of moisture, so some storms could produce very heavy rain in a short amount of time.
Rain chances will begin to decrease from next week. Drier air will push deeper into the region by Tuesday onward.
Let’s look at dew points.
Dew points are what make it feel nice outside. They can also make it feel humid and muggy.
Check out today’s dew points.
They will be in the sticky sixties and seventies. Humid.
Watch what happens by the middle of next week.
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High temperatures throughout the forecast period will generally stay in the 70s and 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.
Not too bad for early June.
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Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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