Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 4th through May 11th

Current risk:  A low-level risk on Tuesday afternoon and night.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments:  I will monitor Tuesday afternoon and night.  A few storms could become severe.  Wind and hail are the main concerns.  The risk is a bit higher over southeast Missouri.  The tornado threat is low.

The graphic below (the left side of the graphic) shows you the level one (dark green) and level two (the yellow color) risk zones.

The level two zone has a slightly higher risk of severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and night.

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.  Chances are fairly low today, but increase late tonight.

See the rain probability graphics below.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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It will be a bit warmer today.

Some areas had frost yesterday morning.  Temperatures fell into the 30s over much of the region.  Some low forties, as well.

There are some storms early this morning across portions of the I-64 corridor and the Evansville Tri-State area.

You can see those storms on this 5 am radar snapshot.

Today, southwest winds will become breezy. Because of the stronger winds, there may be rough conditions on area lakes and an increased fire danger.

A lake wind advisory has been issued for the area today.  Boaters use care.

A large area of showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread southeast across the region tonight and continue into Tuesday morning. Rain chances will be high (80–100%) Tuesday through Tuesday evening.

Some showers will likely continue into Wednesday. Rain chances will range from about 30% in northern areas to 60–70% in the southeast (see the graphics below). A few thunderstorms are still possible near the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders.  Rain should gradually end from northwest to southeast on Wednesday night.

A few thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and night could be intense, with gusty winds and hail.  Overall, there are still many questions about whether a few storms will become severe.  Especially over southeast Missouri.

Cloud cover and ongoing rain may keep the risk shunted south of us.  I will be monitoring it, as always.

Most areas are expected to receive around 1 to 1.75 inches of rain. There is a 60–80% chance of getting more than 1 inch, and a 15–40% chance of getting more than 2 inches.

Here are the anticipated rainfall totals.  As always, they will vary based on where thunderstorms occur.

Thunderstorms will enhance totals.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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Looking ahead, there is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon into Friday night and again on Sunday.

The charts show wave after wave of below normal temperatures into the middle of May.

You can see that in this animation.  The blue and purple colors represent below-average temperatures.

Double-click on the animation to enlarge it.

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Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

7 AM Monday through 7 PM Monday.

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

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7 PM Monday through 7 AM Tuesday.

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7 AM Tuesday through 7 PM Tuesday.

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7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday

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7 AM Wednesday through 7 PM Wednesday

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7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday

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7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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