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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
I will be participating in this year’s Dancing With The Stars in Paducah.
I am looking for donations and sponsorships.
You can buy a table at this link and/or donate (you don’t need to buy a table to donate).
More information at this link. CLICK HERE
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
March 9th through March 15th
Current risk: POSSIBLE.
Current confidence level: LOW confidence that there will be tornadoes.
Comments: A few of the thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday could be intense with strong winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. There remain questions about timing. If the front comes in after midnight on Tuesday, then the risk will be a bit lower. If the front comes in during the day on Wednesday, then the threat will be a bit higher. Monitor updates.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. On-and-off lightning chances through Wednesday.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. POSSIBLE. A few of the storms could be intense today through Wednesday. Peak chances will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? LOCALIZED. Locally heavy rain is likely in some areas. Some localized issues are possible.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? No.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? No.
7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
I am watching Tuesday and Wednesday for the threat of strong thunderstorms. Some storms could reach severe levels. Monitor updates.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
I am monitoring tomorrow and Wednesday.
Some severe threats are possible. As always, monitor updates.
Severe Weather Outlook Graphics
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Tuesday morning
Tuesday afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- A warm day ahead of us. Breezy, at times.
- A windy week ahead of us.
- Tuesday will be warm, as well.
- A few storms are possible later today and evening across mainly the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.
- A few of the storms could be severe on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Monitor updates.
- Cooler by the weekend.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast across our far southern counties this afternoon and evening.
Higher chances of thunderstorms will move into the region on Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night, and Wednesday.
There will be a CAP on Tuesday. That raises questions about the timing of thunderstorms. It is possible they hold off until Tuesday night.
If storms form on Tuesday afternoon, some could be intense. Thunderstorms may also be intense on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Live radar links
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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These were the 5 am temperatures this morning.
A cool morning.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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Today through Thursday
Today will be mild. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight across mainly the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
These storms could produce locally heavy downpours and lightning. Small hail, as well. We currently do not expect these to be severe, but I will keep a close eye on it.
This is the future-cast radar from one of the high-resolution models.
This is for this afternoon. As you can see, it does pop a few storms across our southern counties. Other models keep this activity farther south.
Chances of thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday. Peak chances will be on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The atmosphere will be unstable on Tuesday, but there will likely be a CAP.
How strong that CAP is will determine whether thunderstorms will form before sunset on Tuesday.
If storms do form, then the atmosphere will be quite unstable. A lot of energy to work with. That would raise concerns about severe weather.
You can see the CAPE on this graphic. Think of CAPE as energy that thunderstorms tap into. The higher the CAPE the higher the chance of severe weather.
This is the CAPE late Tuesday afternoon. Those are high numbers.
There will be a lot of spin in the atmosphere over portions of this region. The risk is a bit higher over central and northern Illinois.
I will just need to monitor all of this on Tuesday. It is possible that the CAP holds until Tuesday night and Wednesday. If so, then the threat of severe weather during the day on Tuesday will be lower.
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Here is the tornado parameter for Tuesday afternoon. Notice the high numbers near the warm front to our north.
That is where the tornado risk will be higher. Our region will need to be monitored, as well.
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Those numbers decrease as we move deeper into Tuesday night.
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Here is one of the high resolution mdoels for Tuesday afternoon. As you can see, it is dry.
It has one supercell in northern Illinois.
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As we move into Tuesday evening and night, activity does increase to our north. Several supercells.
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Then, late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, this model does show some thunderstorms in our local area.
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Then on Wednesday, it shows more thunderstorms. Plenty to monitor over the coming days.
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You can see where that model tracks the rotation. Check out the area to our north. That is concerning. Several tornadoes will be possible up there.
That is along the front.
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These graphics show the % chance of rain for each 12-hour period.
The daytime graphics will run from 7 AM to 7 PM.
The nighttime graphics will run from 7 PM to 7 AM.
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Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
Today 7 AM through 7 PM
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Tonight 7 PM to 7 AM
As you can see, the peak chances will be on Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Locally heavy rain will be possible in thunderstorms. If storms train over the same area, then that will enhance totals. Many areas will receive 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain. Then, pockets of higher totals.
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Let me show you the Storm Prediction Center’s (NOAA/NWS) severe weather outlooks.
Tuesday’s severe weather outlook.
The light green is where lightning is possible. The dark green is where a few storms could become severe with damaging wind and hail.
The yellow zone is a level two (slight risk). Remember, slight does not mean there won’t be severe storms. It means the severe activity is likely to be sporadic.
The risk is mainly for Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
As always, monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather App.
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Wednesday’s severe weather outlook.
The light green is where lightning is possible. The dark green is where a few storms could become severe with damaging wind and hail.
The yellow zone is a level two out of five risk. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms.
Remember, slight does not mean there won’t be severe storms. It means the severe activity is likely to be sporadic.
The concern would mainly be the first half of Saturday. I will monitor it. Overall, a low-end risk of severe storms.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
HRW FVS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
NAM 3K model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Hrrr model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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