Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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More information at this link.  CLICK HERE

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

March 3rd through March 10th

Current risk: MONITOR.

Current confidence level: LOW confidence that there will be tornadoes.

Comments: I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon and night.  I am monitoring Friday and Saturday.  For now, the risk of tornadoes appears minimal.    I can’t rule out some severe weather during these time frames.  Currently, there are no signals for a widespread severe weather event.  See the severe weather outlook graphics below.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  On-and-off lightning chances through at least Saturday.  I will monitor Sunday through Tuesday.

2.  Are organized severe thunderstorms. LOW-END RISK.   I continue to monitor Wednesday onward.  A series of systems will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the region.  I can’t rule out some days having the potential for severe thunderstorm activity.  At this time, there is no signal for a higher-end event through Friday.  As always, monitor updates.

See the severe weather outlook graphics below.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? LOW-END RISK.     Locally heavy rain is possible in some areas (see graphics below) over the next seven days.  We are in a drought.  It would take quite a bit of rain to cause flash flooding.  If training of showers and thunderstorms occurs, then enhanced rainfall totals will be possible.  That could cause some localized issues. 

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.     

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? No. 

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? No. 

7.  Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.

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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

I will monitor Wednesday through Saturday for some low-end threats.

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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

I will monitor Wednesday through Saturday for some low-end threats.

At this time, there is a low-end level one risk on Wednesday afternoon and evening.  The primary concern would be a few reports of strong wind gusts and nickel-sized hail.

I would not be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center adds a risk for Friday and Saturday.  At this time, that also appears to be a low-end event.  Monitor updates.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

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Wednesday

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My daily video

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Forecast discussion

•   Warmer weather into the weekend.  Some counties could hit 80 degrees!
•   Multiple systems today through early next week.  Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
•   Rain probabilities will vary GREATLY.  Please see the graphics below for each 12-hour period.
•   I am monitoring the risk of a few heavier thunderstorms from Wednesday into Saturday.  Some low-end severe weather threats are possible through Friday.  There are no signals through Friday for a higher-end severe weather threat.  I will monitor Saturday onward, as well.

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What is the primary weather concern?

A few showers and thunderstorms are on the radar this morning.  See the radar links below.

There will be a large range of precipitation probabilities across the region over the coming days.  See the graphics below.

Here was the 5 AM radar animation.  You can see some scattered showers in our region.

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Live radar links

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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These were the 5 am temperatures this morning.

A wide range of temperatures from north to south.  That will be the rule today, as well.  Cooler north.  Much warmer south.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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We do push our clocks forward this weekend.

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Today through Sunday

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through the entire week.  Perhaps into next week, as well.  Quite the pattern flip from the last three months.

Let’s look at rainfall totals from today.

This first image shows you rain totals through Wednesday, 12:01 AM.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

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This next graphic shows you rain totals through Thursday, 12:01 AM

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Here are rain totals through next Tuesday morning.

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Generally, a widespread 1.5 to 2.5″ of rain is anticipated over the next seven days.

There can certainly be higher totals where showers and thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same counties.

As always, thunderstorms can also enhance rain totals.

This is a complicated forecast from north to south.  The probabilities for rain will be higher north northwest on some days vs areas south southeast.

The easiest way for me to show you that is to walk you through each 12-hour time period.

These graphics show the % chance of rain for each 12-hour period.

The daytime graphics will run from 6 AM to 6 PM.

The nighttime graphics will run from 6 PM to 6 AM.

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Today 6 AM through 6 PM

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Tonight

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WEDNESDAY

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT

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THURSDAY

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THURSDAY NIGHT

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FRIDAY

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FRIDAY NIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT

So as you can see, this is a complicated forecast for each location in the region for each 12-hour time period.  The numbers are going to vary.

Some locations will have high probabilities of rain and some will have lower.  The chances will vary based on the placement of the cold front and warm front (at times a stationary front).

It does appear that shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us into early next week, as well.

As you are aware, we are still in a drought or abnormally dry.  That could help mitigate the risk of flash flooding.  With that said, if we end up with training showers and thunderstorms, then higher totals are likely, and there could be some issues.  That is especially true as we move into the weekend and next week.  By that time, some counties will have a soaked ground.

Training is when showers and thunderstorms move over the same location.  That enhances rain totals.

I will also monitor the risk of a few strong thunderstorms over the next few days.  At least through Saturday, the severe weather risk appears limited.  Perhaps some low-end risk days.

Let me show you the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlooks.

Today.

The light green is where lightning is possible.  The dark green is where a few storms could become severe with damaging wind and hail.

As you can see, we are in the light green today.  That means storms are possible, but below severe levels.

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Wednesday’s severe weather outlook.

We are at a low risk of a few of the storms becoming severe.  The concern will be damaging wind and nickel-sized hail.  The tornado risk is low.

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Thursday’s severe weather outlook.

We are in light green.  Storms should remain below severe levels.

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Friday’s severe weather outlook.

At this time, the risk of severe weather is to our west.

I will monitor both Friday and Saturday.  I can’t rule out a risk during that time frame.

For now, the SPC/NOAA has held off on outlining our region for severe thunderstorms.

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Temperatures will be quite warm over the coming days.  Especially across our central and southern counties.

Wednedsay’s high temperatures.

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Thursday’s high temperatures

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Friday’s high temperature outlook.  Some 80s are possible!

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Saturday’s high temperatures

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Several warm days ahead of us!    Some of the warmest temperatures since last autumn.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)

GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

GFS model 

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

EC  model 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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We do have some sponsors!  Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms?  Link – Click here

INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!

⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.