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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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I am looking for donations and sponsorships.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
February 26th through March 4th
Current risk: NOT AT TIME TIME.
Current confidence level: MEDIUM confidence.
Comments: Severe weather is not anticipated through next Thursday. I will keep an eye on the system next Thursday and Friday. Higher dew points are possible with it. That could lead to storms.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am monitoring next Wednesday through Friday.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms. NOT AT THIS TIME. I will monitor the middle and end of next week.
..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? No.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? No.
7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching the northern half of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois. A wintry mix is possible on Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday.
For now, the risk appears limited, but not zero. Some of the data indicates that it will be cold enough for a changeover to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
It will be warm on Friday and Saturday. This raises questions about whether a wintry mix would affect roads and surfaces.
Monitor updates.
This is the area that I am monitoring for a wintry mix on Sunday into Monday. The shaded zone over our northern counties.
Adjustments are possible.
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This is the area the NWS/NOAA is monitoring. The light green has a 10% to 30% chance of wintry precipitation.
The dark green zone has a higher risk of a wintry mix. Again, this would be on Sunday into Monday.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
I will monitor next Wednesday onward.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- A few showers this morning.
- Much warmer tomorrow and Saturday.
- Multiple systems over the next few weeks. A wetter pattern is likely.
- A wintry mix is possible Sunday into Monday over our northern counties. Of course, questions remain on how far south the wintry mix will push.
- Elsewhere, rain showers are likely from Sunday into at least Monday. Rain chances may extend beyond Monday, as well.
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What is the primary weather concern?
No significant weather concerns through Saturday afternoon.
We do still have a few light showers in the region this morning. Those will push east over the coming hours.
Mild on Friday and Saturday. Highs in the sixties! Spring-like conditions.
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These were the 5 am temperatures this morning.
A cool start to the morning. Some rain showers were in the region, as well.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
I will keep an eye on temperatures early next week. There will be a wide range from north to south.
It will be colder north of the cold front. As a matter of fact, some areas could see a wintry mix on Sunday and Monday. Monitor updates.
See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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After this morning’s rain exits, it will be dry the rest of the day and into Saturday afternoon.
Thickening clouds on Saturday night.
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Sunday into Wednesday
Unsettled weather next week.
Clouds will thicken on Sunday. That will be ahead of our next series of systems.
The guidance is quite bullish on multiple systems tracking across our region from Sunday into the following two weeks.
Perhaps we will put a dent in our drought. We shall see.
Rain showers will develop on Sunday and continue into at least Monday (perhaps beyond).
Seven-day rain totals are starting out bullish. We have been here before with these graphics.
They start off with a lot of rain, and then by the time the event arrives, the totals are much lower.
Let’s see how this trends, again.
Double-click on these images to enlarge them.
This is through next Thursday morning.
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We could have a few showers as early as late Saturday night. More likely, we will have showers from Sunday into at least Monday.
Some data extends the rain beyond Tuesday, as well. That will occur as additional systems move across the country. That would keep precipitation chances going.
Again, as mentioned above, our northern counties may be cold enough for a wintry mix from Sunday into Monday, as well.
I will be monitoring that portion of the forecast.
Let me show you a few models and their placement of the rain/snow line.
GFS model
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EC model
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Canadian model
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UKMET model
It is a bit farther south.
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All in all, I believe there is at least some chance of a wintry mix over our northern counties Sunday into Monday. Whether that is impactful remains to be seen. Especially since it will be so warm on Friday and Saturday.
For everyone else, you can expect rain showers on Sunday and Monday. Perhaps lingering into Tuesday.
No severe thunderstorms through next Tuesday.
Guidance shows another front next Wednesday and Thursday. That front will be warm enough for all rain and perhaps even some thunderstorms.
It is too early to know if severe thunderstorms will be a concern.
Quite a bit of guidance shows locally heavy rain over the coming two weeks. We do need rain. Hopefully, not too much rain. We seem to swing from one extreme to the next.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicate locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Pink/red would be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicate locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Pink/red would be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
EC model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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