Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

.
I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

I will be participating in this year’s Dancing With The Stars in Paducah.

I am looking for donations and sponsorships.

You can buy a table at this link and/or donate (you don’t need to buy a table to donate).

More information at this link.  CLICK HERE

.

🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

February 25th through March 3rd

Current risk: NOT AT TIME TIME.

Current confidence level: MEDIUM confidence.

Comments:  Severe weather is not anticipated through next Wednesday.  I will monitor the systems next week.

..

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  LOW RISK.  I will monitor tonight and tomorrow. There is a low risk of lightning.  A lot of data shows no risk.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center/NOAA/NWS) has us outlined for a few thunderstorms.  No severe weather concerns.

.

Another risk of lightning will arrive on Sunday night and last at least until Tuesday.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms. NOT AT THIS TIME.  I will monitor next week.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.     

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? No. 

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? No. 

7.  Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.  I will watch next week’s systems.  Some of the data brings a wintry mix pretty far south.

.

⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

A small chance of lightning tonight and tomorrow.   I kept us in the green.

.

⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

.

A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

.

Here is your bus stop forecast

.
This afternoon

. 

.

My daily video

.

.

Forecast discussion

•   Warming trend into the weekend.  Saturday will be the warmest day.
•   Light rain tonight and tomorrow.  Rainfall totals won’t be much.
•   A chance of light rain on Sunday.  Low chances for now.
•   A couple of systems next week.  This will increase precipitation chances in the region.  There remain questions about temperatures next week.
•   Some of the data is much colder next week than other data.  This raises questions about the eventual forecast.

.

.

.

What is the primary weather concern?

No significant concerns through this afternoon.

Our next rain chance arrives tonight and tomorrow.

I am watching for a stronger system or two to develop early next week into the middle of the week.  These will need to be monitored for thunderstorms.  It is still too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.

I am also monitoring temperatures next week.  Some of the data indicates a strong cold front near our region.  Colder north and warmer south.  Precipitation type could come into question.  This will depend on the cold front’s position.

You can see that idea on the EC and GFS models.

These are temperature maps.

EC model on Sunday morning

GFS model on Sunday evening

Monitor updates over the coming days.

.

These were the 5 am temperatures this morning.

Milder than 24 hours ago.  Quite a bit milder.  Some locations were in the teens yesterday morning.

.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

I will keep an eye on temperatures early next week.  Some of the data is quite a bit colder.

See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

.

Today’s high temperatures

.

.

Let’s look at rain probabilities for this system.  What is the % chance of rain at your location?

This is for Wednesday night.

Wednesday 6 PM to Wednesday 6 AM precipitation chances.

Double-click on these images to enlarge them.

.

Thursday 6 AM to Thursday 6 PM

Rain will be on the way out tomorrow morning.  Pushing off to the east.

.

Another system may impact the region on Sunday into Monday.

Sunday 6 PM to Monday 6 AM rain chances

.

I am closely monitoring a series of systems from Sunday through the middle of next week.

There is a wide range of ideas in the model data sets.  Anything from thunderstorms to a wintry mix.

For now, I am monitoring the trends in the guidance.

For now, I kept the precipitation all rain.

Monitor updates moving forward.

Let me show you some maps.

This is next week’s system.  The freezing line or frozen precipitation line is pretty far south.

Especially for our northern counties.

UKMET model.  Blue and purple are snow and sleet.

.

GDPS model.  Pink is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet.  Blue is snow.

.

GFS model.  Pink is sleet.  Blue is snow.  Green is rain.

.

The ensembles from the EC model.  This represents snow.

The general idea from this is that the more squares that agree, the higher the probability of the outcome.

The EC AI ensembles are pretty far south.  I will monitor this.  For now, rain is in the forecast.

.

.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.

Blue is snow.

This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)

NAM Model
.

.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Red is locally heavy rain.

Blue is snow.

Hrrr model 

.

.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Red is locally heavy rain.

Blue is snow.

EC model.  This shows us next week’s systems.

.

.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Red is locally heavy rain.

Blue is snow.

GFS model.  This shows us next week’s systems.

.

..

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.

Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

.

I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

We do have some sponsors!  Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms?  Link – Click here

INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!

⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.