Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

February 19th through February 25th

Current risk:  MONITOR UPDATES TODAY.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence.

Comments: A few of the thunderstorms today and this evening could be intense.  The concern will peak over southern Illinois, Indiana, and northwest Kentucky.

Here is the official Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook.

The light green zone is where thunderstorms are possible but should remain below severe levels.

The dark green zone is where a few storms could become severe.  A level one marginal risk.

The yellow is where severe storms are possible.  That is a level two risk.  A slight risk.

Here are two NWS graphics showing you the risk zone.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.  A chance of lightning today.  Mainly later this morning into the evening hours.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.   A few of the thunderstorms could be severe this morning into the afternoon hours.   The risk is a bit higher across southern Illinois, Indiana, and northwestern Kentucky.  Most of the area will not see severe weather.

There remain questions about storms forming.  Some of our high-resolution guidance shows very little activity.  I will just need to monitor the radars.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  UNLIKELY.    

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  POSSIBLE.  Sunday morning and Monday morning.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  POSSIBLE. Monday morning.   

7.  Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.

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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

A few of the thunderstorms today could be severe.

The primary concern will be from this morning through early evening.  Wind and hail are the primary concerns.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

There remain questions about whether organized thunderstorms will develop.  If storms form, they could be intense.

Most of the area will not see severe weather.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App for alerts.

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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

As noted above, a few of the storms could be severe this morning and into the afternoon.

I did briefly pop into the cyan color.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

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My daily video

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Forecast discussion

•   Mild today.
•   A cold front will bring a risk of a few thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon.  Questions remain as to whether organized storms will form.
•   Cooler this weekend.  A chance of light rain Friday night into Saturday night.  It might end as snow flurries.
•   Colder on Sunday and Monday.
•   A bit warmer next Tuesday and Wednesday.

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What is the primary weather concern?

The primary concern today is the risk of a few thunderstorms developing ahead of an incoming cold front.

There remain questions about thunderstorm coverage.  Some of our high-resolution guidance keeps the thunderstorms farther north, northeast of our region.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app for alerts.

The concern is a bit higher over Illinois, Indiana, and northern Kentucky.

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These were the 4 am temperatures.  Mild for February.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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Today will be another mild February day for the region.

Gusty southerly winds, as well.  Boaters use caution.

Today’s high temperatures.

Well above seasonal averages.

Today’s high temperatures

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Let me show you some more severe weather data.

These graphics show you where the most intense storms may form and track.

Notice that most of them track the severe storms to our north across portions of central Illinois and Indiana.

There is considerable agreement on this topic.

We will have to see whether storms form in our area.

NSSL model.

RRFS model

FV3 model

Hrrr model

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It is possible that a few more showers and thunderstorms form right along the incoming cold front (late this afternoon and evening).

Any activity will push east of our region before midnight tonight.  That will bring an end to our rain chances.

I am watching a weak second system on Friday night and Saturday.

This system will bring additional low-end chances of light showers to the region.

It may be cold enough for a light rain/snow mix on Saturday night.  We do not expect impactful snow.  As always, watch bridges and elevated surfaces if temperatures drop below freezing.

The bigger storm will be the drop in temperatures.  It will feel like February this weekend into early next week.

Let’s look at rain probabilities for that system.

This is for Friday night.  As you can see, there is a low-level chance of rain.

Saturday 6 AM to Saturday 6 PM precipitation chances.

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Saturday night chances.

The rain will come to an end by Sunday.

Sunday and Monday will be colder.  Wind chill values will be even colder.

Sunday morning low temperatures.

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Monday morning low temperatures.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.

This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)

Hrrr Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Red is locally heavy rain.

RRFS model 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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We do have some sponsors!  Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms?  Link – Click here

INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!

⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.