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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
I will be participating in this year’s Dancing With The Stars in Paducah.
I am looking for donations and sponsorships.
You can buy a table at this link and/or donate (you don’t need to buy a table to donate).
More information at this link. CLICK HERE
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
February 12th through February 18th
Current risk: No concerns.
Current confidence level: High confidence.
Comments: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. Lightning is possible on Saturday and Saturday night (esp southern counties in the region).
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? NO.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? NO.
7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- A bit warmer over the next few days.
- Rain chances ramp up Saturday and Sunday.
- Dry Monday through Wednesday.
- Mild Monday through Wednesday.
- Several systems are in the long-range outlook, but how much moisture will return with them remains a question.
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What is the primary weather concern?
No significant weather concerns through Friday evening.
A few clouds from time to time. It will remain dry through Friday evening.
Rain chances will ramp up on Saturday and Sunday.
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This morning through Friday evening
These were the 5 am temperatures.
A chilly morning.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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A decent day ahead of us with no weather concerns.
Friday will be a bit warmer ahead of our next storm system.
Friday’s high temperatures.
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Our next precipitation event will arrive this weekend. See the future-cast radars below.
This system is still off the West Coast of the United States.
Small adjustments to the storm’s track will change the forecast rainfall totals. I have posted some rain total graphics below.
Let me show you the rainfall probabilities for the next rain event, and then we can look at rain totals.
Not too much has changed over the past 24 hours.
What is the % chance of rain for each 12-hour period of time?
This is for Friday night. A few showers are possible across mainly southeast Missouri. Mostly after 1 AM on Saturday.
Double-click on the two graphics to enlarge them.
Let’s take a look at rainfall totals.
Let me show you the GEFS and EC ensembles.
What is the probability of one inch or more of rain?
The GEFS is a tad north of what the EC is showing.
The EC is a bit farther south with the track of the low-pressure center.
These small differences will impact rain totals.
GEFS
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What about the EC ensembles?
Here is the probability of at least 1 inch of rain from Friday through Sunday.
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Bottom line: rain chances will increase late Friday night into Sunday. There could still be adjustments in the rain totals.
Peak rain chances will be Saturday into Sunday.
This is the latest rainfall outlook from the WPC/NWS.
As you can see, the higher totals will be in my southern counties. Lighter totals north.
Where that red band sets up remains questionable and has been fluctuating north and south over the last few days.
That red band is where the heaviest totals will be. It did shift north in the early morning update.
Double-click the graphic to enlarge it.
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Data shows a couple more systems to monitor next week and the week after.
Perhaps we can pick up some much-needed rainfall.
Here is the long-range EC model.
One system around the 18th and 19th. The GFS model is moisture-starved with this cold front. The EC model shows a few showers.
.Temperatures will be warmer next week.As a matter of fact, check out next Monday’s high temperatures. Let’s hope this holds. Nice.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow.
NAM Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is locally heavy rain. Blue is snow.
GFS model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is locally heavy rain. Blue is snow.
EC model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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