Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

I will be participating in this year’s Dancing With The Stars in Paducah.

I am looking for donations and sponsorships.

You can buy a table at this link and/or donate (you don’t need to buy a table to donate).

More information at this link.  CLICK HERE

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

February 11th through February 17th

Current risk: No concerns.

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:   Severe weather is not anticipated. 

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME. 

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  NO.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  NO.   

7.  Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.

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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

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My daily video

Forecast discussion

•   Cooler today.
•   Low-end rain chances on Friday night.
•   Increasing rain chances this weekend, but questions remain on the totals.
•  Peak rain chances will arrive on Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

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What is the primary weather concern?

No significant weather concerns through Friday evening.

A few clouds from time to time.

Rain chances will ramp up on Saturday and Sunday.  There remain questions about rain totals.

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This morning through Friday evening

These were the 5 am temperatures.

A chilly morning, but not too bad for the middle of February.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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Here are the rain probabilities for Saturday night.

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Here are the rain probabilities for Sunday (6 AM to 6 PM).  The system will be pulling away on Sunday.

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Here are the rain probabilities for Sunday night.

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The models show varying intensities for the system.

Although the primary models differ, I can see the ensembles are converging on a storm track to our south.

That means the primary area of low pressure will track south of us.

That keeps us on the cool wet side of the system.  Typically, in the winter months, this would be a snow track for our region.

We just don’t have enough cold air for a snow event.

Here are the GEFS model ensembles.  The L’s are the area of low pressure.

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Here are the EC ensembles.  A different model.  Note that the L’s are clustered to our south.

It aligns with the GEFS ensembles.

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Let’s take a look at rainfall totals.

Let me show you the GEFS and EC ensembles.

What is the probability of one inch or more of rain?

GEFS

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What about the EC ensembles?

Here is the probability of at least 1 inch of rain from Friday through Sunday.

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That storm track would likely keep thunder out of our forecast this weekend.

Bottom line: rain chances will increase late Friday night into Sunday.  Rain totals will need to be monitored.  Adjustments are likely as confidence in the eventual storm track increases.

Peak rain chances will be Saturday into Sunday.

Double-click the graphic to enlarge it.

This is the latest rainfall outlook.  There was a slight shift southward over the past 24 hours.

As you can see, the higher totals will be in my southern counties.  Lighter totals north.

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Data shows a couple more systems to monitor next week and the week after.

Perhaps we can pick up some much-needed rainfall.

Here is the long-range GFS model.

It shows a system around Friday the 21st.   A long way out.  I will monitor trends.

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Temperatures will be warmer next week.

As a matter of fact, check out next Tuesday’s high temperatures.  Let’s hope this holds.  Nice.

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Speaking of much-needed rainfall.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.

Blue is snow.

GFS Model

Long range

This is the Tuesday PM system

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Red is locally heavy rain.  Blue is snow.

EC model 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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