Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

.
I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

.

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE

There are a ton of graphics below.  I know it is a lot, but they also answer a lot of your questions.

If you don’t want to read it all, let me give you the overview.

Not much has changed since yesterday’s update.

We do have some snowfall and sleet maps.  Scroll down and that will give you a quick overview.

There will still be adjustments.  Don’t focus on exact amounts.  Focus on impacts.  Icy roads and bitterly pipe busting cold.

Sleet would lower snow totals.  But it would make driving more hazardous.

A 6 to 12-inch snowfall will become 2 to 5 inches if you have a lot of sleet.  No sleet?  Then high snow totals.  There will be a line somewhere across southern Missouri into far southern Illinois or western Kentucky, where the mostly snow event becomes a wintry mix.

Northwest Tennessee should have some snow and a lot of sleet.  Some freezing rain is possible.

Someone always has more snow than forecast.  Someone always has less.  That is the nature of the beast.

Focus on the impacts.

The system arrives late Friday night.  The brunt of it will be on Saturday into Sunday.  It has slowed a little.

This is a two-part storm.  There will be a lull and then more snow and sleet will form Saturday evening and night.  This will continue into Sunday.

The impacts will be hazardous driving, bitterly cold air, and low wind chill values.

Pipe busting cold is likely.  Some primary city mains could break.  The snow might help insulate the pipes underground.

As temperatures drop, our homes become our sanctuary—but winter plumbing problems can quickly disrupt your comfort. At Ballard Plumbing Service, we take pride in serving our community with dependable, honest, and fast plumbing service throughout the cold months.

Some tips from one of my advertisers.

Whether it’s preventing frozen pipes, repairing a burst line, or making sure your water heater is ready for the extra winter workload, we’re here for you. Our team works hard to respond quickly, treat your home with care, and ensure you and your family stay worry-free.

Contact them at www.Ballardplumbingservice.com

Take precautions to avoid frozen pipes‼️⚠️

1. Open cabinets regularly to let warm air circulate to the pipes underneath.
2. Keep garage doors closed.
3. Leave faucets dripping.💧
4. Keep the thermostat at a temperature of at least 50 degrees, even if you are not there.🌡
5. Open interior doors to keep your home at a consistent temperature.🚪
6. Make sure your crawlspace door and vents are closed and there is not a lot of cold air circulating underneath your home.
7. Make sure all outside hydrants or irrigation systems are turned off and properly drained.🚰
8. If you are on a well, make sure some type of heat or insulation is inside your well house (straw or heat lamp).💡

If your pipes do freeze, don’t panic! Turn your water off first, then give us a call at 270-554-4952. 📞☎️

Cover your outdoor water hose nozzles.

.

Temperatures from Friday night through Tuesday night will drop into the -8 to 10 above range.  Wind chills will be lower.

Temperatures could remain below freezing into next weekend.  Brrr.

Expect school closures for much of next week.  If not all of next week.  We may not go above freezing through most of the week.

Some schools may be closed the following week if the big numbers verify.

I do expect some road closures.  That could include some Interstates in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley.

Travel is not recommended once the snow begins.

There is a decent chance that sleet will mix with the snow.  At least over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.

We aren’t sure how far north to bring the sleet.  Monitor updates.

Sleet would make the roads even worse.

There is a chance of freezing rain over our southern counties (that sticks to wires and branches).  How far north the freezing rain pushes is still a question.

Freezing rain totals of 0.01″ to 0.15″ are possible.  That would mainly be our far southern counties.  Monitor.

I found this from the Carolina weather group.

Sleet vs freezing rain.  What is the difference?

.

Do not focus on amounts. Focus on impacts.

Makes no difference whether it’s 5 or 10 inches of snow. One or three inches of sleet. Impacts will be the same everywhere.

I know there are a lot of maps being floated. They all vary.

Why? Because nobody knows the exact totals for your town.

I know everyone is obsessed with amounts.

I get it. But let’s focus on the impacts right now. I say this all the time.

1. Extended extreme cold. Days and days of extreme cold. Below zero at times.
2. Extended travel impacts. The NWS said travel may, for a time, become impossible.
3. Some interstates may close. Some road closures.
Many car accidents.
4. Pipe busting cold. This is NOT a normal cold event. Many days of extreme cold will exacerbate problems.
5. Some mains may bust.
6. Scattered power outages.
7. Cars can’t drive on pure ice or sleet. Tires aren’t made for that. Very difficult.
8. Check out the elderly.
9. Prepare farms and livestock.
.
Prepare for a major winter event.

.

This is the latest snowfall map.  This will evolve.  Again, focus on impacts.

IF you have more sleet than snow, then cut the snow totals in half (at least).  I do expect this to begin and end as snow.  Just how much?

The sleet vs snow line will have a sharp gradient between a lot of snow and a lot of sleet.

.

The latest freezing rain map.  This does not include sleet.

.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NO.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  YES.  Friday night through next Thursday night.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  YES.  Friday night through Tuesday night.  Perhaps a bit beyond Monday.

7.  Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast?  YES. 

A winter storm could affect portions of the region from late Friday night through Sunday

The primary event will be on Saturday and Sunday.  Friday night may remain mostly dry.  That remains a question.  The exact arrival time from west to east.

The bulk of the snow will come in two waves on Saturday.  Snow will linger into Sunday.

Updated graphics from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS

A large winter storm warning (pink) has been issued.  This now covers all of my forecast counties.

Look at how big this winter storm is!  Everyone in pink is under a winter storm warning.

.

The bulk of the snow will come in two waves on Saturday.  Snow will linger into Sunday.

Some graphics from the NWS.

.

St Louis, Missouri, NWS Update

This covers my northern counties.

** For planning purposes, if you have travel plans this weekend into early next week, then you will want to plan ahead.  Significant travel impacts are possible in some of my counties.  **

This event will be harsh on the elderly and those who are shut-in.  Be sure and check on them.

This event will be harsh on livestock and outdoor pets, as well.  Especially if we have wind and snow (moisture).

.

Wrap everything up today and the first half of tonight.  Snow chances increase with each passing hour tomorrow morning.

.

Wind chills will be an issue this weekend into next week.  At times, wind chill values could dip below -10 degrees.

Again, from above.  Here is the wind chill graphic.

Find the town nearest to you.

Remember, wind chill is what it feels like to the human body.

Wind chill can lead to frostbite.  Bundle up.

Let me show you the wind chill values

.

Remember, all models are wrong. Some are just more wrong than others.

Let’s not get too caught up in each model run.

WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST NIGHT?

The primary concern is where to place the snow vs sleet line.

Confidence in the winter storm has increased to 100%.  Just a matter of how much for each county..

What causes precipitation to change type?

It really has to do with what is happening well above the surface.  A few thousand feet aloft.

A warm nose of air can cause the snow to change to freezing rain and sleet.  In other words, it melts the snowflakes.

Eventually, the depth of cold air is enough to cause the precip to become all snow.

This is very difficult to forecast.  There are always surprises in winter storms.

Here is a graphic explaining that.

.

The WPC NOAA/NWS keeps the freezing rain mainly to our south.  It could push into the Bootheel and portions of western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee.  If that happens, then totals should be light.

Here is the probability of 0.10″ of freezing rain.  That is not a lot.  The numbers will be much higher as you travel southward into the ice storm zone.  Some areas could have 0.50″ or more of freezing rain across southern Arkansas into Mississippi, Alabama, and southern Tennessee.

0.10″ of freezing rain will not cause damage.

.

Do not use extension cords with space heaters. Let’s avoid house fires. Remind your adult children of this.

Someone always receives more snow than expected. Someone always receives less than expected. That is just part of winter storms in our region. Focus on impacts. Not exact numbers.

Whether you have 4 or 12 inches of snow, the impacts will be similar. Obviously, more is worse. Four inches of snow with bitterly cold temperatures has impacts, as well.

Impacts will include pipe-busting cold, harsh conditions for those who must work outdoors, harsh conditions for the elderly, harsh conditions for livestock and outdoor animals, and snow-covered roadways.

Extended periods of snow and sleet on roadways.

Significant school closures are likely next week. Some businesses may have to close.

Prepare for issues as early as late Friday night, but more likely as we move through Saturday and into Sunday.

The cold will linger into next week. What falls will accumulate instantly. Bitterly cold air.

A second arctic front will arrive mid-week.  Bringing more cold air.

Time of the winter storm event (see the graphics above)?

Late Friday night into Sunday. The focus is on Saturday and Sunday. There are still questions about the timing of the snow arrival.

Some data brings it in as early as Friday night. Other data holds off until mid to late morning on Saturday.

Certainties or near certainties?

This is strong language for me.

1. Bitterly cold air Thursday night into next week. Some nights will go below zero. Wind chills of -10 or lower. Certain.

2. Snow will fall across our region from late Friday night into Sunday. There could be a lull at some point on Saturday afternoon before more snow develops. Two waves are possible.

3. Significant travel impacts for the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Interstates and major roadways, in the heaviest snow and sleet zone, could be shut down. Certain.

4. Some states will declare a State of Emergency. If the totals verify, the National Guard may be needed in the hardest-hit areas. Near certain.

5. Significant impacts to livestock, outdoor animals, and pets. Certain.

6. This will be difficult for the elderly and shut-ins. Certain.

7. Some areas will likely receive more than six inches of snow. Near certain.

8. Pipe busting cold will be an issue. Certain.

Uncertainties?

1. Where to end the heavy snow over our northern counties. Where totals could be less. This will depend on the storm track.

2. Where to bring sleet into the snow. Sleet is the worst case with heavy snow. Sleet does NOT stick to power lines. Sleet, however, would make roadways worse.

Sleet will cut into snow totals, but will make roads worse.

3. Will there be some freezing rain in our region? That is what sticks to power lines. Confidence in freezing rain is low. That would mainly be our far southern counties. The Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee line southward.  Perhaps a glaze of freezing rain.

4. Wet snow or dry snow. Blowing snow would be a bigger issue with dry snow.  It will likely begin as dry snow.  Then change to a wetter snow.  Ending as dry snow.

5. Power outages. The risk of power outages could increase slightly with increased power demand. The power companies do a great job of keeping the power on.

More information.

This is my sixth update.

Try to not focus on every model run. Try not to focus on one model run. They will all vary in how they depict this winter storm.

Confidence in snow Friday night through Sunday is now 100%. Those numbers have increased from the previous update.

What we don’t know are the exact totals for every county and city. Again, focus on impacts.

The main concern is mixing.  Sleet would lower the snow totals.  It would make the roads worse.

A shift of only 25 miles will make a big difference in snow and sleet totals.  Perhaps freezing rain, as well.

This system is still out over the Pacific Ocean. We are threading a needle with our snow forecasts!

The snow may arrive as early as late Friday night. More likely, it will arrive Saturday morning and linger into Sunday. There could be a brief lull on Saturday before more snow arrives. Keep that in mind, as well.

What falls will accumulate. It will be cold. The ground and roads will be cold.

Snow ratios will be high with this event. The bitterly cold air will mean snow ratios of 12:1 to 20:1.

Higher snow ratios north vs south.

The snow is trending wetter over our southern counties.

What are snow ratios?

Typically, 0.10″ of precipitation (melted) equals one inch of snow.

With this system, 0.10″ of melted liquid precipitation could be 1.5 to 2.5″ of snow. It does not take much precipitation to create a decent snow event.

Radar may show snow falling, but it could be virga. Virga is precipitation that falls from the clouds but does not reach the ground. It is evaporating.

This is normal with bitterly cold temperatures. It is rarely too cold for snow, but it can impact how the storm acts.

High Confidence (5/5) that very cold air will be in place across the region Friday night into next week.

That means Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night will likely be in the single digits to lower teens. Even colder if we have snow on the ground.

Some counties will go below zero. That is especially true with a deep snowpack. Ideal conditions for very cold temperatures.

Higher Confidence (4/5) in the precise storm track and precipitation amounts.

If you have travel plans, then you need to adjust them.

Again, let’s not forget that this is a bitterly cold air-mass.

This will be harsh on outdoor pets and livestock. Prepare accordingly.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.