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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
January 2nd through January 8th
Current risk: None, at this time.
Current confidence level: Medium confidence.
Comments: I will monitor next Thursday. For now, severe weather is not in the forecast.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching next Wednesday night into Thursday night. A cold front will bring rain to the region. Perhaps a few rumbles of thunder.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I am monitoring next Thursday.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? NO.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? NO.
Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

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Here is the extended concern meter.
I am watching for the risk of lightning next Wednesday night into Thursday evening.
For now, this does not appear to be a severe weather event. I will monitor it.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics



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Here is your bus stop forecast
No school. Holidays.
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This afternoon
No school. Holidays.
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Forecast discussion
- A mostly calm forecast over the coming days.
- Some light showers today (far southern counties). See graphics.
- A warming trend next week. Near record highs are possible.
- A rain event is likely next Wednesday night into Thursday night. Perhaps some thunder.
- No snow in the current forecast.
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What is the primary weather concern?
The primary weather concern will be showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday night into Thursday night.
At this time, severe weather is not anticipated. I am keeping a close eye on it. It will be warm ahead of the cold front.
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Here were the 6 AM temperatures. Chilly.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

We will have a range of temperatures today. Similar to yesterday.
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Today through next Tuesday night
A fast-moving weather system will bring light rain or sprinkles to portions of the region today. Clouds, as well.
The majority of the area will remain dry.
The highest chance of rain will be along the MO/AR and KY/TN border southward.
Rain totals will range from 0.00 to 0.10″. Not much.
Here is the official rainfall forecast.
Double-click the image to enlarge it.
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Here are the rain probability maps.
Through 6 PM tonight
6 PM to 6 AM tomorrow
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The chance of rain will push east tonight.
Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be dry.
A slow warming trend over the weekend. No weather concerns.
Tuesday’s high temperatures
Nice!
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Wednesday through Friday of next week
Wednesday through Thursday will be mild.
Perhaps even near-record-high temperatures in some counties. Either way, nice for January! Nice, if you like mild temperatures.
Sorry, snow fans.
Wednesday highs
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Thursday highs
I am watching a cold front that will arrive next Wednesday night into Thursday night. I will need to monitor the exact timing.
The system is still out over the Pacific Ocean.
Confidence in a rain event is high.
Let’s look at the different models.
The Canadian model. This is for next Thursday. As you can see, it has rain in our region.
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The GFS American model. It shows rain in our region next Thursday, as well.
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Finally, the European EC model. It also shows rain in our region next Thursday.
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At this time, rain totals will likely range from 0.20″ to 0.50″. This system is still several days away. Adjustments in rainfall totals are possible. Especially true if we have some thunderstorms mixed in with the frontal passage.
The rain will end next Thursday night or Friday morning.
Next Friday should be dry. Perhaps some clouds.
Here are the latest drought monitor maps.
The region is dry. We need quite a bit of rain. Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois are in moderate drought. The rest of the area is in a low-level drought.
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
Let’s look at the long-range temperature outlook.
Here is the EC AI model. This is showing you above or below normal temperatures.
Blue and purple represent below-average temperatures.
Red represents above normal temperatures.
We have a lot of warmer-than-average days ahead of us. Perhaps some transient cold shots.
For now, sustained cold is not showing up in the charts.
Average highs are around 48 degrees.
Average lows are around 28 degrees.
The date is in the upper-left corner.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Have a great weekend!

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Blue is snow.
Hrrr model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Blue is snow.
NAM 3K model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Blue is snow.
RRFS model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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