Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 19, 2025: Cold today. A little warmer Saturday. A little cooler on Sunday. Warmer next week!

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

December 19th through December 26th

Current risk:  NONE

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:    

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NO.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  NO.     

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  NO.

7.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  NO.  
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Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

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Here is the extended concern meter.


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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

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Forecast discussion

  •   Colder today.
  •   A little warmer on Saturday.  A little cooler on Sunday.
  •   A lot warmer next week!  Mild temperatures on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
  •   A few spotty light showers over the coming six days.  No major systems through Christmas.
  •   A bigger system towards the end of the month and the first part of January.  For now, that looks wet.

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What is the primary weather concern?

No significant weather concerns over the next several days.  There will be low-end rain chances over the coming seven days.  See graphics below.

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Here were the 6 AM temperatures.   A chilly morning.  Quite a bit colder than 24 hours ago.


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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.


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Today  through Sunday

Our rain and wind event has pushed eastward.

The risk of severe weather yesterday was small.  Primarily, we expected strong winds with the cold front and showers.  In the end, that did verify.

Our forecast for no tornadoes verified, as well.

We did have a couple of National Weather Service warnings.

The tornado warning was issued because of some rotation in Ballard County.  Nothing touched down, and there weren’t any tornadoes.  The rotation stayed aloft.

A lot of the showers yesterday (there wasn’t much lightning) produced rotation.  But that is to be expected in December when you have strong wind shear aloft.  Storms will rotate on radar, but nothing touches down.

There were some reports of strong wind gusts with the showers.  That was because of the strong low-level jetstream.  Some of those winds gusted above 45 mph.

There were some tree limbs down here and there.  A couple of power poles, as well. Primarily associated with the showers that tapped into the cold front winds.

A power pole was pushed over south of Mayfield, Kentucky.  Marion, Kentucky, reported some downed tree limbs.  Todd County, Kentucky, reported damage to some tree limbs and power poles.  I am sure there were some other reports, as well.

There wasn’t any CAPE to work with.  CAPE is instability.  CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to feed on.

In the end, it was about what we expected from the system.

Here were the Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports from yesterday.  As you can see, the only report in our area was from Todd County (my far eastern county).   Sometimes, some late reports come in.  We will see if anything is added to this today.

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No real weather concerns over the coming days.  That is the good news.

It will be cold today with below-average temperatures.

It will be a bit warmer on Saturday, then a bit cooler on Sunday.

Let’s look at those temperatures.

Cold today.  A bit warmer tomorrow. A bit cooler on Sunday.

Today

Tomorrow

Sunday

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Monday through Friday

Well, the good news is that we do not have any significant weather concerns Monday through Friday.

Temperatures will be mild by Tuesday.  Those mild temperatures will continue into Friday.

Let’s look at temperatures.

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

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There will be some clouds during this time period.

Spotty light showers will also be possible.  For now, I kept chances under 30%.  I will monitor Wednesday and Thursday in case I need to bump those rain chances up a little bit more.  See the graphics below.

Rain totals during this time period will be light.  Likely remaining under 0.10″.

Both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be mild with highs in the sixties!  I can’t rule out some locations hitting seventy degrees.  Crazy weather we are having!

The first part of December was cold.  Now, we move into a milder pattern.

Some data shows a bigger system towards the end of the month and the first part of January.  For now, data indicates that will be a rain event.  Long way out.  I will monitor trends.

Perhaps colder behind that system.

Let’s look at these rain probabilities.

I will walk you through each day.

Saturday night.  As you can see, chances are very low.  Around 10% or so in the grey zone.

Sunday (daytime).  Low chances.

Sunday night.  Low chances of light rain.

Monday (daytime)

Monday night

Tuesday

Tuesday night

Wednesday

Wednesday night

Thursday

As you can see, chances won’t be zero.  They also won’t be all that high.  Anything that falls will be light.

At this time, there are no severe weather signals through Christmas.

I know it will be very warm, but there aren’t any storm systems to tap into all that warmth.

I am watching a system towards the end of the month and the first part of January.

Too soon to know if that will bring thunderstorms or just rain.  For now, it looks wet and not white.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model  

On this particular model, green is rain.  Yellow and orange indicate moderate to heavy rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and purple are freezing rain and sleet.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.
Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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ZoomRadar


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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

 

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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