Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Temperatures will pop above average today.  This will occur ahead of a cold front.  Warm ahead.  Cold behind.

It is possible that high temperatures are reached early in the day (for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois).  A cold front will sweep across the region today, bringing falling temperatures.

It is just a matter of how fast the front moves across the region.  It did slow down by an hour or two from previous forecasts.

The front will arrive first over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Then, it will push eastward from there.

Here is the temperature animation.

Time stamp at the top of the animation.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Another view of those falling temperatures

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Here are the highs for today

Double-click to zoom in.

Here are the highs for tomorrow (Friday)

.Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.  See the video and future-cast radars.The bulk of the rain will fall before sunset tonight.  Ending from west to east this afternoon and evening.  It may take some time for the line to progress across the region.  Keep that in mind.  See the future-cast radars below.The rain should end before colder air arrives tonight.  Thus, we do not have snow or ice in the forecast.  A flurry, at most.

Temperatures will rapidly fall tonight.  Watch for black ice in parking lots or in areas where rain does not dry off of surfaces.

It does not appear that dewpoints will be high enough for severe thunderstorms.

At most, a few of the storms could produce gusty winds and pea to dime-sized hail.

If a stray warning were issued, then it would be for gusty winds.

Speaking of gusty winds.

It will be a bit windy today.  A deep area of low pressure will pass to our north.  This will produce a tight pressure gradient.  That equals gusty winds in general. Mainly in the 15 to 35 mph range.  Occasionally, higher gusts.

See the black lines on this weather map?  Those are isobars.  Equal lines of barometric pressure.  The tighter the lines, the windier it will be.

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The low is located in Minnesota.  Way north of us.  Thankfully.  If that low were over Missouri, we would likely have severe storms and tornadoes from this event.

Being so far north, it protects us from the deeper moisture moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

Here is the 6 AM surface map.  Again, you can see the tight isobars (black lines).  You can see the 984 mb low over Minnesota.

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Let’s look at rain totals.  They did go down just a tad.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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Friday through Tuesday

A roller-coaster ride in the temperature department over the coming weeks.

It will turn colder on Friday.

Highs will be in the 30s and 40s.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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Friday will be dry and chilly.

Temperatures will warm into the forties and fifties on Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday may end up a bit warmer than Sunday.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

Saturday highs

Sunday highs

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There are low-end light rain chances Sunday into much of next week.  There are no strong signals for a bigger system.  Perhaps enough moisture and clouds for a 10 to 20% chance of light rain or sprinkles.

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Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

At this time, both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will deliver average to above-average temperatures.

Here is the Christmas Eve temperature forecast.

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No significant snow or ice in the forecast.

Some data shows a return to colder air around the first week of January.  Long way out, but I will monitor it.

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