Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

November 25th to November 31st

Current risk:  NONE

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:    

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.    Locally heavy rain is possible later this weekend.  I will be monitoring rainfall totals.  There could be some nuisance flooding.  Areas that commonly experience issues may have problems.  

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.    

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO. 

6. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  NO.

7. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  NO.

8.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  UNLIKELY.  The rain may begin as a wintry mix late Friday night and Saturday morning.  At this time, it appears too warm for there to be impacts.  I will need to monitor it.  If it is a bit colder, then the forecast could change.  

Here is the short-range concern meter.

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Here is the extended concern meter.

No severe weather concerns.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

No graphic today
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This afternoon

No graphic today

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No video today.  I will try and get those started again tomorrow.

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Forecast discussion

•   My apologies for the extended absence.
•   Cool today with a few showers.
•   Cool and breezy on Wednesday.
•   A series of systems will bring rain back to the region Friday night into next week.
•   There could be a wintry mix late Friday night and Saturday morning, but impacts appear unlikely.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.

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Today  and tonight

Good morning, everyone.

I have been off sick for a while.  I am on the mend.  I am just trying to get my strength back.

We have a fairly busy weather pattern over the coming seven days.  There will be multiple chances of showers.

One system is moving through the region today.  This is bringing scattered showers to the area this morning.  We will have another round of scattered showers this afternoon.

We should dry out tonight.

A cold front will pass through the region over the next 24 hours.  This will bring cool temperatures to the region over the coming days.  Gusty winds, as well.

Winds on Wednesday will gust above 25 mph.  Making it feel even cooler than it already is.

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Wednesday through Friday afternoon

Dry conditions are expected from Wednesday into Friday afternoon.  As mentioned above, it will be cool.

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Friday night through Monday

Several systems will bring numerous showers to the region from Friday night into Monday.  Locally heavy rain is possible.

You can see that system on this animation.

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It could be cold enough for a wintry mix on Friday night and Saturday morning.  At this time, it appears that it will be too warm to produce accumulating snow or sleet.  It will need to be monitored.

If temperatures are a bit colder, then there could be some concerns.  For now, I am monitoring the trends.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, then monitor updated forecasts and plan on some wet conditions.

Let’s look at the latest rainfall outlook.

Rainfall totals for today.

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Rainfall totals through next Tuesday

Some locally heavy totals.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

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Let’s break down the rainfall probabilities.  What is the % chance of rain for each 12 hour period.

Some of these days may end up with higher probabilities.

Friday 6 PM to Saturday 6 AM

Saturday 6 AM to Saturday 6 PM

Saturday 6 PM to Sunday 6 AM

Sunday 6 AM to Sunday 6 PM

Sunday 6 PM to Monday 6 AM

Monday 6 AM to Monday 6 PM

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A fairly busy weather pattern.

I will keep an on the temperatures Friday night and Saturday.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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We do have some sponsors!  Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms?  Link – Click here

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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/