November 17, 2025: Unsettled weather. Showers and thunderstorms.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

November 17th to November 23rd

Current risk: SMALL RISK.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence.

Comments: There could be just enough spin in the atmosphere to produce a few rotating storms on Tuesday. A brief tornado is possible.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. We will have on and off showers and thunderstorms from today through at least Thursday night. Lightning will be a concern.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? SCATTERED. Thunderstorms could produce hail tonight and on Tuesday. A few storms could produce quarter-sized hail and strong wind gusts. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Locally heavy rain is likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Peak chances will be Wednesday night into Thursday night. Nuisance flooding is possible. Commonly flooded roadways and ditches could have water issues.

Rain totals are likely to range from 1.5 to 2.5″ across the region. The bulk of that will fall on Wednesday and Thursday.

Locally higher totals are possible. If thunderstorms train over the same locations, then some water issues could develop.

Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.

6. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? NO.

7. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below 10 degrees? NO.

8. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO.

Here is the short-range concern meter.

A small chance of lightning today and tomorrow.

Here is the extended concern meter.

Lightning will be possible tonight and tomorrow. Another chance on Wednesday and Thursday.

Some small hail is possible tonight (Monday night).

I will monitor the risk of severe weather. For now, I kept us out of the blue.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

No video today. I am traveling to a weather conference.

Forecast discussion

An active few days ahead of us. On and off showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
Locally heavy rain is possible this week. The risk of locally heavy rain will peak on Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Small hail is possible tonight (Monday night). Severe weather is unlikely.
Thanksgiving is currently forecast to be wet and mild. Breezy. The timing of that system will need to be monitored. Right now, it appears a cold front will move across the region around Thanksgiving.
There are some signals for colder air behind the Thanksgiving front, but it is still too early to know how cold.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.

Today and tonight

A warm front will move through the region today. This will bring scattered thunderstorms to southeast Missouri. Lower chances elsewhere.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated tonight. I can’t rule out a few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds. At this time, severe weather is not anticipated.

Tomorrow through Friday

An active weather pattern is forecast for tomorrow through Friday. On and off thunderstorm chances. There will be locally heavy rain with this event.

The good news, for now at least, is that severe weather is not anticipated.

Some nuisance flooding can’t be ruled out. Mainly in commonly flooded roads and ditches. Areas that usually have issues.

Let’s look at the rain probabilities (the % chances).

On and off.

This will make it a bit easier to break down.

Today from 6 am to 6 pm

Monday night 6 pm to 6 am Tuesday

6 AM Tuesday to 6 pm Tuesday

6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Wednesday

6 AM Wednesday to 6 pm Wednesday

6 PM Wednesday to 6 am Thursday

6 AM Thursday to 6 PM Thursday

6 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday

6 AM Friday to 6 PM Friday

6 PM Friday to 6 AM Saturday

6 AM Saturday to 6 PM Saturday

Locally heavy downpours are possible. Rain totals will be enhanced if showers and thunderstorms train over the same area.

This is the rainfall totals forecast through Saturday. It is possible that some areas have higher totals.

Right now, Thanksgiving looks wet and mild. Cold air will return after Thanksgiving. A bit early to know how cold.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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Radars and Lightning Data

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https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.