Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

November 14th to November 21st

Current risk:  NOT AT THIS TIME.   MONITOR UPDATES.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence.

Comments:   A series of cold fronts will push across the region next week.  Perhaps the strongest one will arrive on Thursday.  I will monitor for the risk of severe weather.  For now, it is too far out for certainties.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  MONITOR.  I am monitoring the risk of lightning on Monday and Tuesday.  Another chance on Wednesday and Thursday.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR.  A series of cold fronts will move through the region next week.  I will need to monitor each one of them.  Thunderstorms are possible, but it is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.  Monitor updates moving forward.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.    Locally heavy rain is possible next week.  Rainfall totals, in some counties, could exceed three inches.  I will monitor the flooding risk.  If the rain is spread out over a larger time frame, then the concerns will be lower.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.    

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO. 

6. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  NO.

7. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  NO.

8.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  NO.  

Here is the short-range concern meter.

A small chance of lightning today and tomorrow.

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Here is the extended concern meter.

We are in the grey zone next Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  That is for the chance of lightning.

I will monitor the risk of severe weather.  For now, I kept us out of the blue.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

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Forecast discussion

•   Warm today.  Warm tomorrow.  Breezy, at times.
•   Isolated or scattered light showers on Saturday evening.  Mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
•   A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Monday and Tuesday.
•   Another strong cold front will push across the region on Wednesday and Thursday.
•   Showers and thunderstorms will accompany these fronts.  It is too soon to know if severe weather will be a concern.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.

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Today  and tonight

Here were the 5 am temperatures.    Not quite as cold as yesterday.

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Today through Sunday

Today will be warm with well-above-average temperatures.  Saturday, as well.  Widespread seventies are anticipated.

We will approach record high temperatures on Saturday!  Gusty winds on Saturday.

No weather concerns today or tomorrow.

Today’s highs

Saturday highs

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There will be a weak cold front moving through the region on Saturday night/Sunday morning.  This will bring a few showers with it.  Mostly to our northeast and east.  It may clip our region, primarily across the southeastern portions of Illinois and eastern portions of western Kentucky.

Let’s look at those rain chances (the % chance).

Saturday night into Sunday morning.  As you can see, rain chances are centered on our eastern counties.  Overall, low chances.

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Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the sixties. Other than those morning showers (eastern counties), it will be a dry day.

Sunday highs

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Let’s look at rain totals through Sunday evening.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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Now, let’s look at rain totals through Wednesday morning.

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Now, let’s look at rainfall totals through Friday morning.  As you can see, some locally heavy rain is possible.

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Monday through Saturday

A series of cold fronts will move across the region next week.

This will continue to be a challenging forecast.

It appears we will have at least scattered showers and thunderstorm chances from Monday into Thursday.

The strongest system appears to be the one on Wednesday and Thursday.

Right now, the severe weather risk appears low, but that could change.  There are some signals that the systems could pull enough moisture northward for stronger thunderstorms.  Right now, it is just too early to know.  Monitor updated forecasts.

The threat of severe weather will depend on where each low-pressure center tracks.

If the low-pressure tracks to our north, then that places us in the warmer sector of the system.  That could mean thunderstorms.

The biggest question right now is instability.  CAPE.  CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into.  I am monitoring trends.

Here is the latest rainfall forecast through next Thursday morning.

Let me show you the EC model.

This is the Monday/Tuesday system.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Tuesday.

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This is the Thursday system.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

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This is the system for next Saturday and Sunday.

Not all models show this third cold front.  I will monitor trends.  We may need to extend rain chances into the weekend.  Confidence in the third system is low.

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That is a lot to monitor for the weatherman.

Monitor future forecast updates.

Don’t forget, we often do have severe weather during the autumn months.  It is not unusual.

No snow or ice in the current forecast.

I am watching a cold shot around Thanksgiving.  December is shaping up to be colder than average, as well.

I have a feeling we will have a busy storm track during December and January.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model  

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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