Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

November 13th to November 20th

Current risk:  NOT AT THIS TIME.   

Current confidence level: Medium confidence.

Comments:   I will monitor a few cold fronts next week.  It is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.  Monitor updates.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  MONITOR.  I am monitoring Monday through Thursday of next week.  Another system next weekend, as well.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.  A series of cold fronts will move through the region next week.  I will need to monitor each one of them.  Thunderstorms are possible, but it is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.  Monitor updates moving forward.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.    

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.    

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO. 

6. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees?  NO.

8.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  NO.  

Here is the short-range concern meter.

A small chance of lightning today and tomorrow.

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Here is the extended concern meter.

We are in the grey zone next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  That is for the chance of lightning.

I will monitor the risk of severe weather.  For now, I kept us out of the blue.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

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Forecast discussion

•   Warmer today.  Warmer tomorrow and Friday.
•   Mild temperatures into the weekend.  A bit cooler by Sunday.
•   Isolated or scattered light showers are possible late tonight and tomorrow morning.  Another chance on Saturday evening.  Mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
•   The cold front continues to slow.  It is now expected to arrive on Monday and Tuesday.  Another storm system or two is possible mid to late next week.  A lot of weather to monitor.
•   It is too soon to know if severe weather will be a concern next week.

Monday through Saturday

A series of cold fronts are forecast to move across the region next week.

This has been a challenging forecast.  The timing keeps needing adjustments.

It appears we will have at least scattered shower and thunderstorm chances from Monday into Thursday.  Perhaps another system next weekend.

At least two cold fronts will pass through the region, and some data shows three fronts next week.

Right now, the severe weather risk appears low, but that could change.  There are some signals that the systems could pull enough moisture northward for stronger thunderstorms.  Right now, it is just too early to know.  Monitor updated forecasts.

The threat of severe weather will depend on where each low-pressure center tracks.

If the low-pressure tracks to our north, then that places us in the warmer sector of the system.  That could mean thunderstorms.

The biggest question right now is instability.  CAPE.  CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into.  I am monitoring trends.

Here is the latest rainfall forecast through next Thursday morning.

Adjustments are likely in these totals.

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Let me show you the EC model.

This is the Monday/Tuesday system.

This is the Thursday system.

This is the system for next Saturday and Sunday

That is a lot to monitor for the weatherman.

Monitor future forecast updates.

Don’t forget, we often do have severe weather during the autumn months.  It is not unusual.

No snow or ice in the current forecast.

I am watching a cold shot around Thanksgiving.  December is shaping up to be colder than average, as well.

I have a feeling we will have a busy storm track during December and January.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model  

This is the Saturday and Sunday system (this weekend)

This is the rest of next week

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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