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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
November 3rd to November 9th
Current risk: At this time, tornadoes are not anticipated. I am monitoring next Saturday.
Current confidence level: Medium confidence.
Comments: A cold front will push across the region on Saturday. A few storms are possible along that front. For now, I am not forecasting severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. A small chance of lightning on Friday and Saturday.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. A cold front will push across the region next Saturday. A few storms are possible along that front. For now, I am not forecasting severe thunderstorms.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? POSSIBLE. Next Sunday night. The risk of that increases next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night.
6. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? POSSIBLE. A chance of 32 degrees or lower on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night of next week.
Here is the short-range concern meter.

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Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Sunday.
Lightning is possible on Friday and Saturday. I will keep an eye on Saturday’s instability levels. If we had more instability, then stronger storms would develop.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics



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Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

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Forecast discussion
- A warming trend.
- Monitoring rain chances late Thursday night into Friday night. Showers are possible along that front.
- A stronger cold front is expected on Saturday/Sunday.
- The coldest air of the autumn, thus far, will be next week.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.
Today through Thursday
We are waking up to chilly temperatures.
Here were the 5 am temperatures. A few locations have dropped to near freezing.

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We do have some patchy fog in the region. Use care. Fog is possible again tonight.
There are no weather concerns today through Thursday. Dry conditions.
Temperatures are expected to rise above average over the coming days. Some locations will hit 70+ degrees!
The warmest days will be on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
Wednesday highs
Thursday highs
A few showers are possible late Thursday night.
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Friday through Monday
Two cold fronts will pass through the region between Friday and Monday.
The first cold front will arrive on Friday. The second cold front will arrive on Saturday and Sunday.
The Friday front is a weak one. The Saturday/Sunday front will be stronger.
A few showers will accompany the front on Friday. Most likely late Thursday night into Friday afternoon.
Another round of scattered showers on Saturday/Saturday night. Perhaps a rumble of thunder.
I am not expecting significant rain. Rainfall totals of 0.01 to 0.30″ are anticipated.
I would not cancel any weekend plans. Monitor updates over the coming days.
See the video for more details.
It appears that southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois may receive little or no rainfall. Southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee will see higher rainfall totals. Again, either way, totals will be on the light side.
The rainfall totals shown below are from both cold fronts.
There could still be some adjustments to this. There are questions about instability on Saturday. If we had a bit more instability, then severe weather would become a concern.
For now, severe weather is not in the forecast. I will monitor it.
Thunderstorms could also enhance rainfall totals.
Take the general idea from this. Monitor updates.
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The coldest air of the autumn season will arrive next week.
Temperatures may actually fall during the day on Sunday.
A hard freeze is likely next Monday and Tuesday night. I will monitor Sunday night.
Gusty winds are likely on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Gusting above 20 mph.
You can see the cold air arriving in this animation. Those blue colors are temperatures in the 20s.
This is the GFS model. The EC model is not as cold, but still plenty chilly. The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle of those models.
In the end, it appears a hard freeze is likely next week.
Time stamp upper left. Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
No accumulating snow or ice in the forecast.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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