October 23, 2025: Chilly tonight. Monitoring weekend rain chances.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

October 23rd through October 31st

Current risk: None

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring Sunday through Tuesday.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.

6. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? NO.

7. Is a killing frost in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Frost is likely tonight across portions of the region. A frost advisory has been issued.

Double click to enlarge this image.

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8. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO.

Here is the short-range concern meter.

Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Wednesday.

I will monitor Sunday into Tuesday for lightning. It appears the chance of lightning will be a bit higher on Monday and Tuesday along another cold front.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

Forecast discussion

Chilly tonight. A frost advisory is in effect for portions of the region.
Monitoring rain chances on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Mainly Saturday night into Sunday night.
I am tracking another system next Monday and Tuesday.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video for more details for your specific county. This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.

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Good morning, everyone.

Today and tomorrow.

A calm weather day ahead of us. It will be seasonably mild. Highs will be in the sixties and seventies.

Tonight will be chilly. Frost is likely across portions of the region. See the frost advisory at the top of the page. Not everyone will experience frost. The risk is higher across portions of Illinois and Kentucky.

A few clouds on Friday. A slight chance of a light shower over southeast Missouri.

The overall trend for Friday and Friday night/Saturday has been drier.

If you have outdoor plans on Friday, then I don’t have any significant concerns.

The Weekend Weather

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, then I would not cancel them. Keep an eye on the forecast. A few showers are possible, especially on Sunday.

Saturday should be dry. A slight chance of a light shower over mainly southeast Missouri.

For now, peak rain chances appear to be late Saturday night into Sunday night. Let me show you the ensembles.

If you have outdoor plans on Sunday, then monitor updates. Plan on some showers in the region.

What are the probabilities of 0.50″ or greater of rain falling from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Monday.

Notice the probabilities are higher as you travel south.

The EC guidance is a bit more bullish for those rain totals.

EC model ensembles

GFS model ensembles

What are the probabilities of 0.50″ or greater of rain falling from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Monday.

Let’s look at the GFS model and EC model rainfall totals.

I suspect there will be adjustments in this. This remains a tricky forecast. The models show portions of the region will have little or no rainfall. Other areas have a decent rain event.

The overall trend has been to push the higher totals southward.

The GFS model may be too bullish too far north.

Again, most of this would fall late Saturday night into Sunday night.

Here is the EC Model.

Double-click images to enlarge them.

Missouri view

Rest of the region view

The GFS model

Double-click images to enlarge them.

Missouri view

Rest of the region view

I am watching another cold front next Monday and Tuesday.

It does appear we will have more chances of rain with it. Gusty winds and cooler temperatures will filter in behind it.

Severe weather is not anticipated.

Halloween is currently shaping up to be cool with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 40s. Some guidance shows rain on Hallowee, but I have dismissed that for the time being. I will monitor trends.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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