Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

October 22nd through October 29th

Current risk:  None

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:   

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

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We will have some chilly mornings over the coming days.

The coolest mornings will likely be tomorrow and Friday. Areas that tend to be a bit colder will dip into the 30s.

I can’t rule out patchy frost.  The risk of frost will be highest on Friday morning.  Southeast Missouri and the Bootheel may remain too warm for frost.

The risk is higher across southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Even more so over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.

The Weekend Weather

If you have outdoor plans on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, then I would not cancel them.  Keep an eye on the forecast.  A few showers are possible.

I am monitoring rain chances late Friday into Tuesday.

Models are not handling this pattern very well.  That is not uncommon during the autumn months as we change seasons.  They struggle.

They struggle even more because we lost some of the upper air data due to budget cuts.

This system continues to trend drier.  Less rain coverage.  With that said, I don’t believe we have fully captured how the weekend event will unfold, given the fluctuating rain probabilities.

For now, peak chances appear to be late Saturday into Sunday.  Then, there will be another system next Monday and Tuesday.

Let me show you the ensembles.

What are the probabilities of 0.50″ or greater of rain falling from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Monday.

Notice the chances are higher as you travel west-southwest.

GFS ensembles

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EC model ensembles

What are the probabilities of 0.50″ or greater of rain falling from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Monday.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.