Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

October 17th through October 23rd

Current risk:  ISOLATED RISK on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comments:   We do have a risk of severe weather on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  The tornado risk remains low, but not zero.  I can’t rule out a brief spin-up.  Monitor updated forecasts.

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2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.  Severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a level one and two risk for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Bottom line:  Monitor updated forecasts.  A few of the storms on Saturday could be intense.

Here is the area the SPC has outlined for a severe weather risk on Saturday/Saturday night.

The yellow zone is the level two risk.  Adjustments in this are still possible.

The dark green zone is the lowest risk zone.  A level one (marginal) risk.

The yellow zone is a level two (slight) risk.

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.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.    

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

This graphic was not updated.

No concerns at the bus stop this morning.

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This afternoon

This graphic was not updated.

No concerns at the bus stop this afternoon.
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Good Friday morning, everyone.  I hope you are having a nice week.

Bottom line:  I would not cancel your Saturday plans. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday and Saturday night, then carry an umbrella and a rain jacket.  Then, if it rains, you will be prepared.  Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App (and other sources) for the latest watches and warnings.  A few of the storms could become severe with high wind gusts and quarter-sized hail.  The tornado risk is low, but not zero.

Rain chances before 12 pm will be lower than in the afternoon and evening hours.  It is not a zero chance of morning showers, but the chance is lower and they will be widely scattered.

The primary time frame of concern will be Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.  The eastern half of the region may remain dry for most of the day.  Keep that in mind.  See the daily video for more information.

I know there are many outdoor events on Saturday, so we will hope for the best.

I did not make any significant adjustments to the going forecast.

Once again, today will be nice.  Warm.  Increasing clouds.

Winds will begin to become a bit more gusty tonight.  Gusty winds into Sunday.  Occasionally, gusts will top 25 mph, mainly on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will be well above average today and tomorrow.

No significant weather concerns through Friday afternoon.

A strong cold front will approach the region on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  This front will bring warm temperatures, increasing humidity levels, higher dew points, and showers/thunderstorms.

The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive during the afternoon hours.

Here is what one of the high-resolution models is showing.

This won’t be exact, but take the general idea from it.  A band of showers and storms will push from west to east across the region.

I will need to monitor to see if storms form ahead of the line, as well.

This is around 2 to 3 PM.  A line of showers and storms is moving into southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri.

This is around 4 to 5 pm.  The line continues to push eastward.

This is around 7 pm on Saturday evening.  The line continues to push across the region.

Again, this may not be exact.  The line could be a bit farther east than shown on this model.  Monitor updates if you have outdoor plans.

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I continue to monitor the risk of a few storms becoming severe with sixty mph wind gusts, quarter-sized hail, and even a short-lived tornado.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and night.

Here is their latest outlook.  They did shift it around a bit.  That is not uncommon.  Additional adjustments are possible as new data arrives today.

This graphic is from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS.

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Rainfall totals will vary.  As they usually do.  Generally, we are looking for 0.70″ to 1.40″.   Thunderstorms can always enhance rain totals.

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A few showers may linger into Sunday morning.  It will turn cooler on Sunday.

A couple of showers are possible Monday night and Tuesday.  A slight chance of a rumble of thunder, as well.  We are not anticipating severe weather.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.