Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

October 15th through October 21st

Current risk:  MONITOR

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comments:   I am monitoring the risk of severe weather on Saturday/Saturday night.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us in a risk, but there remain questions on the extent of the severe threat.  I will know quite a bit more tomorrow and Friday.

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

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Good morning, everyone.

Bottom line:  If you have outdoor plans on Saturday and Saturday night, then carry an umbrella and a rain jacket.  Then, if it rains, you will be prepared.  The rain may hold off until Saturday evening/night, but that remains a question.  

For now, plan on showers and thunderstorms dotting the weather radars during the day and night.

I know there are many outdoor events on Saturday, so we will hope for the best!

I did not make any major adjustments to the going forecast.

Once again, we have some nice days ahead of us.  Warm.

Temperatures will be well above average today through Saturday.  That equals highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s through Thursday.  Then, low to mid-80s on Friday.

No significant weather concerns through Friday afternoon.

There could be some patchy fog at night.  This is especially true near bodies of water and in valleys.

A strong cold front will approach the region on Saturday.  This front will bring warm temperatures, increasing humidity levels, higher dew points, and showers/thunderstorms.

There remain some questions on what time it will rain at locations X, Y, and Z.

Data has slowed slightly over the past 24 hours.

The EC model has always been the slowest model.  It brings the front into the region on Saturday night.  The GFS model has always been faster.

Here are the two model runs from this morning.

I continue to monitor the risk of a few storms being intense.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

There remain some questions about this event.  Instability may be lacking for widespread severe weather.  The higher instability levels may stay to our south.

Current data indicate a low-end severe weather risk.  At this time, the tornado risk appears low.

We are still three to four days away from this event.

Confidence in the final forecast outcome will increase on Thursday and Friday.  By then, we will have a decent idea of how the setup will unfold.

As mentioned, it likely won’t rain all day on Saturday, but there will be showers and thunderstorms dotting the weather radar throughout the day and night.

A few showers may remain in the region on Sunday.  It will turn cooler behind the cold front.

Some days next week may remain in the sixties for highs.  Highs in the seventies are a lock.  That will feel a bit more like autumn.

I do not have any frost or freeze conditions in the seven-day forecast.  A few locations may dip into the upper 30s next week.  For now, I kept temperatures in the forties for lows.  Locations that tend to be a bit colder on clear nights could dip below forty degrees.

Let’s look at the long-range model ensemble temperatures means.

This is the GFS ensembles.  The mean/average temperatures.  Highs and lows.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
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🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.