September 23, 2025: More showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

September 23rd through September 30th

Current risk: UNLIKELY

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comments: At this time, we do not expect tornadoes. I will keep an eye on Wednesday’s forecast.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. There is a chance of lightning today and tomorrow. A small chance on Thursday.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? ISOLATED. A few storms could produce strong winds and nickel-sized hail over the coming days. I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings. Widespread severe weather is unlikely.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED. Locally heavy thunderstorms this week could briefly cause issues. The concern would be rapid runoff. The risk of organized widespread flash flooding is low. Scattered issues can’t be ruled out.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? NO.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

9. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? NO.

Here is the short-range concern meter.

A few storms could be intense over the coming days. The primary concern will be strong wind gusts and hail. A few severe thunderstorm warnings are possible through tomorrow.

Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Monday.

We will pop into the blue zone today through Wednesday.

A few storms could trigger a severe thunderstorm warning. Mainly for wind and nickel-sized hail.
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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating, then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

Forecast discussion

Shower and thunderstorm chances.
A few storms could be intense today and tomorrow.
Cooler temperatures this week.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

Good Tuesday morning, everyone.

Today is the first full day of autumn!

We did receive quite a bit of rain yesterday in some counties. Some of you have received over three inches of rain. Others are still below 0.50″.

The good news is that more rain is on the way.

This is what the radar looked like at 6:00 a.m. on Tuesday.

See the live radar links at the top and bottom of the page.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

Some of you have already received quite a bit of rain over the last three days. Some of you are still waiting for the more substantial rainfall.

We will have on-and-off rain chances today and tomorrow. Scattered showers are also possible on Thursday.

The chance of rain will be lower on Friday. Friday may remain dry if the low pushes off to the east a tad faster. I capped Friday’s rain chances at around 20%.

These are the anticipated rainfall totals for the period between now and Thursday. They will vary, of course.

Most of this will fall today, tonight, and tomorrow.

Some of the rain will be locally heavy. Slow-moving thunderstorms will enhance rain totals.

These totals will vary greatly. Take the general idea from these graphics. As mentioned, thunderstorms can easily double rain totals.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

Here is the far southeast MO, southern IL, western KY, and western TN view

Here is the Missouri view

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There is a low-level risk of severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The primary concern will be damaging wind and nickel-sized hail.The risk of severe weather at any given location will remain small.Some adjustments in these outlooks are possible. But you can take the general idea from them.

Here is today’s severe weather outlook. The light green is sub-severe. The dark green is the low-level one severe risk zone.

Tomorrow’s outlook

The risk of flash flooding is low, but not zero. Widespread issues are unlikely. Some commonly flooded ditches and roadways could have problems if thunderstorms train over the same areas.

Temperatures will be lower over the coming days, mainly in the seventies. A few spots could hit 80 degrees today, depending on cloud cover and rain.

Saturday and Sunday are shaping up to be quite nice with highs in the seventies and lower eighties. Low temperatures will be in the fifties and sixties.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

We do have some sponsors! Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here

INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!

⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.

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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?

Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!

Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.