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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
September 16th through September 22nd
Current risk: NO
Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.
Comments: At this time, there are no concerns.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. There is a chance of lightning on Friday through at least Monday. I will monitor Tuesday of next week.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NOT AT THIS TIME.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today, tomorrow, and Thursday.
6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? NO.
8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.
9. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? NO.
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Here is the short-range concern meter.
A few of Friday’s thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds. There is a low-end risk of severe weather.
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Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Monday.
We pop into the grey zone later this week. That will be for lightning. At this time, severe storms are not anticipated.
A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Here is your bus stop forecast.
This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- More hot weather.
- Monitoring rain chances.
- Not as hot this coming weekend.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
Good morning, everyone
I had a nice weather conference!
Now, back to the weather chair!
I was also able to visit the Gulf. The water felt like lukewarm bath water. Quite warm.
The Gulf is actually at number one right now. That means it is the warmest it has been since records began. See the chart below.
That is concerning. Typically, warm Gulf waters lead to more severe weather for our region during the autumn and winter months.
The red line is the current Gulf temperature.
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We have more hot weather in the forecast. Widespread nineties today through Friday.
The record number of ninety or above days in a row (for September) at the Paducah, Kentucky, reporting station is ten. We may hit nine days.
The first day of ninety or above was last Thursday.
There is a tiny chance of showers today. Mainly over western Kentucky. Lower chances over the rest of the region.
We did have a few showers and thunderstorms over the last couple of days. Most areas, however, remained dry.
Our next chance of rain will arrive on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Perhaps Tuesday.
For now, I capped chances at 30 to 40%. I will monitor trends. So, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast.
Most likely, not enough to break the ongoing drought.
Let’s look at September 1st through the 15th. This shows you how dry it is.
This shows you the total precipitation rank since 1893.
The number 133 equals the driest.
Number one equals the wettest.
As you can see, we are ranking from 109 in western Tennessee to 123 across portions of southeast Missouri. It is very dry.
Currently, this is the seven-day rainfall outlook.
Let’s see how this trends.
Double-click the image to enlarge it.
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Temperatures from Saturday through next Tuesday are expected to be a bit cooler. I am anticipating widespread eighties.
Some relief from the nineties! Thankfully.
Here are the EC ensembles. I chose Paducah as a central location.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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