September 3, 2025: A few showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast. Two cold fronts.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

September 3rd through September 9th

Current risk: NONE

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A chance of lightning tonight and tomorrow morning. Another chance on Friday/Friday night.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO. Some storms could produce isolated gusty winds. The risk of severe weather is very low.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? NO.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

9. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? NO.

Here is the short-range concern meter.

Normal thunderstorms are possible this week along two cold fronts. We do not anticipate organized severe weather.

Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Tuesday.

Organized or widespread extreme/severe weather is not anticipated.

Isolated lightning is possible tonight and tomorrow morning. Another chance on Friday into Saturday morning. A few storms could produce gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

This afternoon

Forecast discussion

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight and tomorrow morning along a cold front.
Not everyone will receive measurable rainfall. Some locations will pick up 0.10″ to 0.30″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.
A second cold front will arrive on Friday and Saturday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible with that front, as well.

Good morning, everyone.

A few locations received rain yesterday. Heavy thunderstorms formed over Muhlenberg, Christian, Trigg, and Todd Counties. There was even a brief National Weather Service severe thunderstorm warning for gusty winds in Muhlenberg, southern Christian, and Todd Counties. No severe weather was reported.

We have a few cold fronts moving towards our region over the coming days. This will mean some adjustments in the temperature forecast.

We expect a lull in precipitation today. Then, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return tonight and early Thursday morning.

Don’t get too excited. We aren’t expecting much in the way of rainfall over the coming days.

Let’s look at the rain (%) probability graphics.

This is for tonight and early tomorrow morning.

This is for tomorrow (7 AM onward)

Some of you will receive no measurable rainfall. Others will pick up 0.10″ to 0.30″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.

This will not be enough to help the drought. The ground is very dry. Whatever falls will immediately soak into the ground. And, eventually evaporate.

Here is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall outlook for today through Saturday.

Another front will push across the region on Friday and Saturday. This will bring an additional chance of showers and thunderstorms.

As you can see, we aren’t expecting much. This is a general idea (broad-brushed).

Thunderstorms will provide the best opportunity for higher totals. Some lucky spots will receive heavier rainfall totals.

Double click to enlarge the image.

Temperatures over the next seven days are expected to be mostly below average. It will still be warm on some days.

It will be warm today and again on Friday. This afternoon and Friday afternoon may actually pop above average for a few hours during the afternoon.

Average highs for early September are in the mid to upper eighties. Normal lows are in the low to mid sixties.

Here is the latest EC ensembles temperature forecast. I picked Paducah as a central location. The entire region will be similar. Slightly higher far south. Slightly lower north.

I continue to watch a potential warm-up around the 12th to 19th. Perhaps we pop above normal for a few days.

Many counties have burn bans in effect.

If you must burn fields or brush, then check with your county officials. I suspect there will be a lot more burn bans issued over the coming weeks.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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