August 27, 2025: Below average temperatures.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

August 27th through September 3rd

Current risk: NONE.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring next Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps some showers and thunderstorms.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? NO.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

9. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? NO.

Here is the short-range concern meter..

Quiet weather. We are in the green.

Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Tuesday.

Organized or widespread extreme weather is not anticipated.

We are in the green through Monday. I will keep an eye on next Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps some showers and thunderstorms. At this time, severe weather is not anticipated.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

This afternoon

Forecast discussion.

Mostly calm weather into early next week. A slow warming trend is expected, but temperatures will still be below average into Monday.
Scattered showers are possible tonight and Thursday. Mainly our far southwestern counties. See graphics.
Below-average temperatures are expected through the week and into next week.
Drought conditions continue to worsen.
I am watching rain chances towards the middle of next week.

Yesterday was another beautiful day for the region. Nice temperatures.

There were some record low temperatures broken yesterday morning! We may have some this morning, as well.

Here are some stats from yesterday.

Today will be another nice day.

There will be increasing clouds over the southwest two-thirds of the region. That is because of a southern disturbance moving into the region.

We are waking up to cool temperatures. Again, this is more like late September than late August.

5 AM temperatures

Our next weather system will arrive tonight and tomorrow.

As we move through the day, there will be an increase in clouds.

You can see the increase in clouds in this animation. Blue represents clouds.

The time stamp is located in the upper left. That is Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 00z=7 PM.

A fast-moving weather system is expected to bring a few showers to a small portion of the region tonight and tomorrow.

As suspected, the system continues to trend southwest. That means less rain for our region. The concern has mainly been along the MO/AR border into the Bootheel. That is where rain showers were anticipated.

Mainly Butler County, Missouri, into the Missouri Bootheel.

And, there will likely be a few showers in that area. However, I don’t expect much rainfall.

Here is the latest rainfall forecast map. The WPC continues to push this further southwest.

It may clip my far southwest counties. If trends much further southwest, then even those areas will miss out.

Let me show you that on the precipitation probability maps.

Rain chances (%) from 7 pm to 7 am Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Thursday 7 AM to Thursday 7 PM (% rain probabilities)

There is a sharp cut-off for those who have no rain and some rain. Totals should be light.

Thursday 7 PM to Friday 7 AM

The 15-day EC model temperature outlook is nice. The worst of the summer heat is likely behind us.

There will still be some warm days, of course. Not sure how many more 90-degree days we have. Perhaps some, but the threat of days and days of 90s continues to become less likely. Our temperature averages begin to drop as we move into September.

Drought conditions will continue to worsen.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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