August 15, 2025: A hot and humid weekend ahead of us.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

August 15th through August 21st

Current risk: NONE.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated lightning is possible today through Sunday (the chance is less than 10% at any given location). The vast majority of the region will remain dry. Scattered lightning is possible along a cold front next Wednesday and perhaps Thursday.

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. You can never rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm warning during the summer months (for downburst winds).

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. Slow-moving summer storms can produce isolated torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways. Organized or widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through next Tuesday. Perhaps next Wednedsay. Wednesday’s forecast will depend on the speed of a cold front that is expected to push into our region.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will likely exceed 100 degrees today, tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday. I will monitor next Tuesday.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

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Here is the short-range concern meter. An isolated thunderstorm is possible today; otherwise, we are in the green.

Keep in mind that typical August/summer thunderstorms can produce isolated heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.

Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Thursday.

Extreme weather is not anticipated. It will be hot this weekend.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible today. The chance is less than 10% at any given location. A few more storms are expected towards the middle of next week.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

This afternoon

Forecast discussion.

Patchy fog is expected during the morning hours over the coming days.
Hot and humid conditions are expected over the next five days. Above-average temperatures (especially this weekend).
Warm mornings. Warm/hot afternoons. Humid throughout the period.
The chance of rain today through Sunday will be 10% or less.
I continue to watch a weak cold front towards the middle of next week. That would bring somewhat

Good morning, everyone.

Our stagnant pattern continues. I did not make any significant adjustments to the going forecast.

It is going to be hot and humid today through at least Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday.

A ridge of high pressure is the reason for the heat. Some people call these heat domes.

You can see that ridge on these 500 mb maps. Looking aloft. That dark red is the ridge. During the summer, a ridge means hot weather.

Tomorrow’s weather map (500 mb heights)

Here is what the ridge looks like on Monday evening. Solidly over our region and much of the country, for that matter.

Now look at next Saturday. The ridge pushes west-southwest. This will begin on Wednesday and Thursday. As the ridge moves southwest, a trough will develop over the eastern United States. That should help push a cold front into our region from the north. If that happens, temperatures will be cooler towards the middle to end of next week. Perhaps not a lot cooler, but somewhat cooler.

We are expecting temperatures in the mid to upper 90s through at least Tuesday. Thankfully, dew points won’t be extreme. We won’t be returning to where we were a couple of weeks ago.

Dew points will range from 68 to 74 degrees. Humid.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will be possible this weekend. During the big heat wave, we experienced 110 to 120 degree heat index values.

This is a fairly typical late summer pattern. Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonal averages.

Here is my mugmometer. How muggy will it feel? It is going to be humid outside.

Remember, dew point is what controls how humid it feels outside.

No tropical storm or hurricane threats in our region through the next eight days.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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