August 12, 2025: Hot and humid weather to continue into next week.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

August 12th through August 18th

Current risk: NONE.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning will be possible this week. Primarily today, tomorrow, and Thursday. Lower chances Friday through Monday.

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? UNLIKELY. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. You can never rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm warning during the summer months (for downburst winds).

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Slow-moving summer storms can produce isolated torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways. Organized or widespread flash flooding is not anticipated. Isolated issues are possible.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through next Tuesday.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will likely exceed 100 degrees by Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. I will monitor next Tuesday.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

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Here is the short-range concern meter. Just normal summer thunderstorms.

Keep in mind that typical August/summer thunderstorms can produce isolated heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.

Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Monday. Extreme weather is not anticipated.

A few normal summer-time thunderstorms will be possible this week.

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.A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

This afternoon

Forecast discussion.

Hot and humid conditions are expected over the next seven days. Temperatures will be a few degrees above average.
Warm mornings. Warm/hot afternoons. Humid throughout the period.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible today, tomorrow, and Thursday. Lower chances from Friday through Tuesday.
Some of you will remain dry with little or no rainfall.

Good morning, everyone.

We did have some thunderstorms form overnight in western Kentucky. They moved north northeast into southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana.

A few locations picked up a brief downpour and some lightning.

This is what radar looked like earlier this morning.

2 AM radar (the white lines show what direction the storms were moving)

Here is what it looked like at 5 am

Here is what radar rainfall estimates looked like with those overnight showers and storms. This is what fell overnight.

Mainly in the 0.10″ to 0.30″ range. Locally higher.

An upper-level disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today, tomorrow, and Thursday.

The risk of severe weather is low. It is rarely zero during the summer months. You can always have an isolated warning for gusty winds. Organized or widespread severe weather is not anticipated. That is the good news.

Again, not everyone will receive rain. A few locations will pick up 0.25″ to 0.50″. Remember, summer storms can produce locally higher totals (above one inch).

Here are the official rainfall probability graphics. This shows you the % chance of precipitation.

Today

Tomorrow

Thursday

Friday

The weather is going to remain hot and humid this week. Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will dip into the seventies. These temperatures will be a few degrees above seasonal averages.

Rain chances will begin to decrease by Friday and Saturday. Perhaps a few remaining showers and storms on Friday. Even less on Saturday and Sunday.

This is a fairly typical summer pattern. Temperatures will be a few degrees above seasonal averages.

Here is my mugmometer. How muggy will it feel? It is going to be sticky outside. Muggy.

Remember, dew point is what controls how humid it feels outside. It will be a bit more humid/sticky as we move through the week, but nothing extreme.

I am watching the weekend temperature forecast. The ridge of high pressure will be a bit stronger. That means low to middle 90s for highs vs lower 90s.

Heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees are likely as we move towards Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

There may be another cold front towards the middle/end of next week. I am monitoring trends in the guidance.

That would help lower our temperatures. It would also increase rain chances. Fingers crossed for those who need rain.

You can see that on the EC ensembles. A bit far out for certainty, but worth monitoring.

No tropical storm or hurricane threats in our region through the next ten days.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

3K model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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Radars and Lightning Data

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Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.