July 28, 2025: Extreme heat. Scattered thunderstorms. Cooler weather is on the way.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

July 28th through August 3rd

Current risk: None.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment: No tornado threats.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is likely over the coming days. The lightning threat will continue through at least Thursday.

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.

A cold front will bring an increased risk of strong thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce high wind gusts. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED. Slow-moving summer storms can produce torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways. This will be a concern through at least Thursday.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Temperatures are expected to be in the nineties through at least Wednesday. Perhaps on Thursday in some locations. Thursday’s temperatures will depend on just how fast the cold front passes through the region.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values of 108 to 116 degrees are expected to be in the forecast through Wednesday. Perhaps above 100 in some counties on Thursday (depending on how fast the front moves through the region).

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? POSSIBLE. It is possible, in some locations, today through Wednesday. Use care during the peak heating hours.

Here is a graphic that shows you high temperatures and heat index values. Find the city nearest to you.

Notice the warmest temperatures will arrive early next week.

Double-click on this image to enlarge.

Warnings and advisories.

Double-click on this image to enlarge.

Randolph and Ste. Geneviève Counties are also included in the extreme heat warning.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Forecast discussion.

Extreme heat index values are possible today through Wednesday.
Areas with clouds and precipitation will be cooler. Keep that in mind.
The hottest air temperatures of the year are likely to occur today through Wednesday.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.
July thunderstorms can produce strong and gusty winds. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, as well.
A strong cold front is expected to push through the region on Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring somewhat cooler air and much less humid air to the area by Thursday and Friday.
Questions remain on how long the somewhat cooler air will linger.

Good morning, everyone.

An extreme heat event is expected to persist today through Wednesday.

There are some questions about cloud cover today and scattered thunderstorms. Where the clouds are thicker, heat index values will be lower. This will be the saving grace for some areas.

Areas outside of clouds and rain will experience highs in the mid-to-upper 90s. Heat index values of 108 to 116 degrees are likely. These would be the hottest readings of 2025, thus far.

Use care if you must work outside. Coaches and band directors should consider the weather forecast when scheduling practice.

Here are the daily temperature forecasts. Tuesday should be hotter than today.

Keep in mind, heat index values (what your body responds to) will be much higher than this today through at least Wednesday (for some on Thursday, as well).

Today

Tomorrow

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

The peak of the heat wave will likely be on Tuesday

Here are the temperature anomalies. How many degrees above or below average will temperatures be?

Normal highs are around 90 degrees. Normal lows are around 68 degrees.

Now, compare that to Friday’s temperature anomaly map. Much cooler by Friday.

Somewhat cooler air and much less humid air will arrive on Thursday and Friday. The front will slowly move north to south. Some areas will remain hot on Thursday. Keep that in mind, as well.

The front will deliver highs in the eighties and heat index values below 90 degrees on Thursday (north) and across the area on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

There remain questions about how long the somewhat cooler and less humid air will linger in the region. Some of the data shows three or four days, and other data shows more than four days.

Let’s root for the longer-than-four-day solutions. I know everyone is tired of the heat and muggy air.

Summer is not over. The heat will return. The muggy air will return. We still have to get through August and part of September.

Our average temperatures really start to drop as we move into September.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today through Thursday. Peak chances will be along a cold front on Wednesday and Thursday.

Some of the thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal (level 1 risk) on Wednesday.

Let’s look at the rain probabilities.

Monday 7 am to 7 pm

Wednesday 7 am to 7 pm

Wednesday 7 pm to Thursday 7 am

Thursday 7 am to 7 pm

Thursday 7 pm to Friday 7 am

Friday 7 am to Friday 7 pm

Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this heat wave.

Use care in the heat. Remember the signs of heat illness.

Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this extended period of heat.

Change your pets’ water bowls frequently, as well.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.