Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

We experienced quite a bit of thunderstorm activity yesterday, concentrated in a thin line from Mt. Vernon south to New Madrid.  Then about 20 miles E and W of that line.  That is where storms were most numerous.  A few storms occurred outside of that zone, as well.

Portions of Williamson County, Illinois, received more than three inches of rain!  Many areas remained dry.

Otherwise, the region baked under high pressure.  Highs were in the nineties.  Heat index values ranged from 105 to 115 degrees.  Not the best weather.

I am forecasting more of the same today and tomorrow.  Hot and muggy.

You can see the NWS heat warnings and advisories blanket a large area.

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The ridge of high pressure is causing a large portion of the USA to bake in summer heat.

This is today’s high temperature forecast.   Hot and muggy.  Tomorrow will be similar.

Double-click this image to enlarge it.

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Temperatures might be a couple of degrees “cooler” on Saturday and Sunday.  Mainly, lower nineties.  That will be because of clouds and a few more thunderstorms.  It will still be hot and humid.

For now, I capped chances at 30%.  Either way, expect some showers and thunderstorms in the region.

Not the best short-range forecast for those of you who are tired of the heat and humidity.

Check out the extended forecast.  Our hottest weather of the year is expected to arrive early next week.

This graphic is for southern Illinois.  The rest of the region shows similar numbers.  We expect temperatures to reach the mid-to-upper nineties by Monday and Tuesday.  Then, finally, somewhat cooler temperatures are expected late next week.  Let’s hope this forecast verifies.

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This is the temperature matrix map.  This is the EC ensemble.  Ensembles are the same model run multiple times with slightly different initial variables.

The general idea in this graph is that the more numbers that are similar in the vertical column, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

You can see the mean at the bottom.  Notice July 27th and July 28th are the hottest days.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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The cold front is expected to arrive towards the middle/end of next week.  That will bring showers and thunderstorms.  Lower humidity levels.  Lower temperatures.  Let’s hope it verifies.

You can see that front on these two animations.

The dew point animation shows lower dew points behind that front.  Dew point is what makes it feel so muggy outside.

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Then, the temperature anomaly map animation.  We go from red to blue (above to below average temperatures).

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Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this heat wave.

Use care in the heat.  Remember the signs of heat illness.

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Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this extended period of heat.

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Change your pets’ water bowls frequently, as well.

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Let me show you the current NWS rain probability maps.

Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms during the summer months usually means someone will have a gullywasher, but many areas will remain dry.  It does not mean that it won’t rain on your picnic.

Take the general idea from these numbers.

These numbers may vary a bit in the daily video.  I gave the average chance area-wide on the video update.

Friday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

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Saturday 7 AM to Friday 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

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Sunday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

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Stay cool out there!

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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