Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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NOTE: I will be off from work from next Sunday to the following Sunday.  I will be on a family trip.  I won’t update the video or blog.  I will send out a few updates via the app, especially if active weather develops.

A hot and muggy day is ahead of us.  Highs will top out in the 90s.  Today’s heat index values will range from 98 to 104 degrees.

Temperatures on Saturday will be hot, as well.  Heat index values will again top out around 98 to 104 degrees.

A couple of showers and thunderstorms (20% chance) may form again today.  The bulk of the area will remain dry and hot.  Muggy.  Remember, a 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means that most locations will remain dry.  A few places will receive a downpour.

A frontal boundary will push into the region on Saturday and Sunday.  This will bring an increase in the shower and thunderstorm activity.

We are in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.  The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.  Frequent lightning and heavy downpours, as well.

Here is the Saturday severe weather outlook.  Light green is where thunderstorms are possible, but they should remain below severe limits.  The dark green zone is the level one severe weather risk.  The risk levels range from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest).

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Here is the Sunday severe weather outlook.  Light green is where thunderstorms are possible, but they should remain below severe limits.  The dark green zone is the level one severe weather risk.  The risk levels range from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest).

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The tornado risk is low.  We typically don’t see a lot of tornadoes during July.  Wind shear is weak.

Some of the thunderstorms will produce one to three inches of rain per thirty minutes, dime-sized hail, and 60 mph wind gusts.  I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorm warnings this week, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  Typical for July.

There is a tremendous amount of moisture in the atmosphere during July.  That is why it feels so humid and muggy.  Thunderstorms tap into that moisture.

It is flash flood season.  This is why there have been so many flash floods in the news.

Some data indicates a strong cold front moving into the region late next week.  Quite a bit of data stalls the front over our area.  If it does not push south, then we will remain in the muggy air.  That also means additional thunderstorm chances.

As it stands, I have thunderstorm chances continuing into at least next Thursday.  Perhaps beyond.

Let me show you the current rain probabilities.

Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms during the summer months usually means someone will have a gullywasher, but many areas will remain dry.  It does not mean that it won’t rain on your picnic.

Take the general idea from these numbers.

These numbers may vary a bit in the daily video.  I gave the average chance area-wide on the video update.

Friday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

Friday 7 PM to Saturday 7 AM rain probabilities (%)

Saturday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

Saturday 7 PM to Sunday 7 AM rain probabilities (%)

Sunday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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GFS model..

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it

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