Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 30, 2025: Thunderstorm chances today. A cold front will push through the region.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 30th through July 6th

Current riskNone.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:   No tornado threats.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.   There is a chance of lightning today and tonight.  A slight chance of lightning on Tuesday across the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  A slight chance of lightning on Saturday.  Scattered lightning is possible on Sunday.  I will monitor next Monday.

2.  Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.  A few thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts today and tonight.  Overall, the severe weather risk is low, but not zero.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  Summer thunderstorms can produce an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes.  This can temporarily flood ditches and some roadways.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  YES.   Temperatures are anticipated to be near or above 90 degrees this coming Thursday through Sunday.  I will monitor next Monday.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees?  NO.    

7. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? MONITOR.    I will monitor this coming Saturday and Sunday.  Dew points and humidity will likely slowly rise as we move towards the weekend.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.     

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

  •   A cold front will push across the region later today/tonight.
  •   Scattered thunderstorms are expected into tonight.  A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts.
  •   A couple of storms may linger into Tuesday.
  •   Somewhat less muggy over the coming days (behind the cold front).
  •   Warming trend by the weekend.  Becoming a bit more muggy as we move into the weekend, as well.

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Good day, everyone.

I hope you had a nice weekend.  It sure did go by fast!

Over the last few days, some of you received a month’s worth of rainfall.  Other locations received very little.  Typical for early summer.  I call that feast or famine weather.  Your neighbor can pick up a gullywasher, meanwhile, your location receives little or no rainfall.

A cold front is approaching the region from the north and west.

This front will push southeast today and tonight.  It will push through the region by tomorrow afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front today and tonight.  A few remaining showers and storms will be possible on Tuesday over our far southern counties.

Peak shower and thunderstorm chances will be this afternoon and tonight.

There is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.  This will lead to locally heavy rainfall totals.  June thunderstorms can produce an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes.  This can briefly flood ditches and roadways.  Avoid flooded roadways.

A few of the thunderstorms could be severe, as well.  The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.  A low chance of nickel-sized hail.  We are not anticipating tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a low-level one risk of severe weather today.  You can see that here.  The dark green zone is the level one risk.  The concern will be damaging wind gusts.

The primary time frame of concern for severe weather will be 1 PM to 12 AM (today/tonight).

Lightning will also be a concern.  Thunderstorms will produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.  When thunder roars, go indoors.

The Tuesday shower and thunderstorm chances will mainly be across the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  As you move northward, the chance of rain will be lower on Tuesday.

Here are the Tuesday rain probabilities.

Most of the region will be dry on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

I have low-end thunderstorm chances by late in the weekend.  Confidence in the chance of thunderstorms this coming weekend is currently low.

It will be somewhat less humid tomorrow through Friday.  Then, with time, temperatures will slowly rise back into the 90s by the weekend.  A bit more humid, as well.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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Hrrr model..

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.
Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

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Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar


If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

 

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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