Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 18th  through June 24th

Current risk:  ISOLATED THREAT.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  A few thunderstorms will likely be intense today and tonight.  A few storms could produce damaging winds and hail.  There is a low level/isolated risk of short-lived tornadoes.   Monitor updates.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible today and tonight.  A slight chance on Thursday.  The risk of lightning Friday through Tuesday is small.  If lightning threatens, move indoors.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.  A stronger storm system is expected to bring a conditional risk of severe weather to the region today and tonight (Wednesday).  The primary concern is large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Conditional means there remain some questions about how unstable the atmosphere will become.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a level two and three risk.  The levels run from one to five.  One is the lowest.

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3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are possible today and tonight.  Some storms could produce torrential downpours.  There will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms will tap into that moisture and produce heavy downpours.  A few reports of flash flooding will be possible.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  YES.   Temperatures may reach 90°F or higher Friday into early next week.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? YES.    Heat index values are expected to approach and exceed 100 degrees this weekend.  Use caution in the heat.

Double click on this graphic to enlarge it.  Notice the Saturday and Sunday heat index values.

• Temperature and Humidity:

  The heat index factors in both the actual air temperature and the amount of moisture in the air (relative humidity). 
• Perceived Temperature:

  High humidity makes it harder for the body to cool itself through sweating, so the perceived temperature is higher than the actual temperature. 
• Heat-Related Illnesses:

  When the heat index is high, the risk of heat-related illnesses, such as heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke, increases, especially with prolonged exposure to the heat or physical activity. 
• Shade vs. Sunlight:

  The heat index is typically calculated for shaded areas. Exposure to direct sunlight can further increase the perceived temperature. 

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Showers and thunderstorms are likely later today and this evening/tonight.  There is a conditional risk of severe weather.
•   Gusty winds today.  Area boaters should use caution.
•   Hot and muggy this weekend.  It should finally be dry Friday through Sunday.
•   Heat index values are expected to occasionally exceed 100 degrees this weekend.

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Good day, everyone.

We will have gusty winds today.  Boaters should use caution.  South southwest winds may occasionally gust above 25 mph.

We have a complicated severe weather forecast today and tonight.  It seems that this is often the case.

We are under a conditional risk of severe weather.

What does conditional mean?  It means that if the atmosphere does not destabilize, then the risk of severe weather will be lower.

For the severe weather event to fully develop, the atmosphere must destabilize.

It is possible that the severe weather risk will be a bit higher over Kentucky and Tennessee vs Missouri and Illinois, even though the Storm Prediction Center has a higher risk west and north.

The SPC will update its outlook around 8 am.  Another update during the late morning hours.

The reason for this is an area of clouds and precipitation approaching from southwest Missouri and western Arkansas.

You can see those clouds on the 6 am satellite view.

We do believe this will weaken as it moves into our region.  The bigger question will be cloud cover.  If clouds are thicker, then the atmosphere won’t become as unstable.  This would lower the severe risk across portions of the region.

The bottom line is that confidence in severe weather is questionable, especially over portions of Missouri and Illinois.  Confidence is a bit higher over Kentucky and Tennessee.

The entire region should monitor updates.

Monitor your app alerts today.  Be prepared for storms.  Then, go about your business.

Here is the Wednesday severe weather outlook.  Orange is the level three threat zone (the highest on this graphic).

The peak concern will be during the afternoon and evening.

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The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts and quarter-sized hail.

Wind shear will be modest, but sufficient for severe weather.

At this time, the tornado risk appears low, but perhaps not zero.  Any time you have severe thunderstorms, you have to monitor the tornado threat, as well.

Here is a timing graphic.  This isn’t just one line.  So, that complicates the timing.

Let’s pay attention from the afternoon onward.

A couple of showers and thunderstorms may linger into Thursday, but we should see less coverage than in recent days.

At this time, Friday through Sunday is shaping up dry and hot.  Perhaps Monday and Tuesday, as well.

It will be hot and muggy Friday into Tuesday.  Highs will pop above 90 degrees in many locations.  Heat index values of 95 to 105 degrees are likely.

A summer weekend!

Know the signs of heat illness.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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NAM 3K model..

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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