Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 13th  through June 20th

Current risk:  UNLIKELY.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  The risk of tornadoes is low.  An upper-level low will be spinning over our region today through Sunday.  Occasionally, these types of weather systems can produce brief weak landspouts.  They can cause light damage to trees and property.

The actual threat at any given location is extremely low.

There could be some tropical and cold air funnels over the coming days.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning will be possible today through Saturday night.  Isolated lightning is possible on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  I will monitor next Thursday onward.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Thunderstorms during the summer months can produce isolated, damaging wind gusts.  Downburst winds.  This can occur with little or no warning.

Organized severe weather is not currently in the forecast.  As always, keep an eye on your Beau Dodson Weather app for updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are likely this weekend.  Some storms could produce heavy downpours.  There will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms will tap into that moisture and produce heavy downpours.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  POSSIBLE.   I will monitor next Tuesday onward.

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE.    I am monitoring the middle of next week.  It will turn quite warm on us.  Heat index values could approach or exceed 100 degrees.  

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow.
•   Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into much of next week.
•   Locally heavy rain downpours.  Lightning, as well.
•   The most intense storms could produce strong wind gusts and pea-sized hail.  We are not anticipating organized severe weather.  Isolated downburst wind gusts are always possible during the summer months.
•   I can’t rule out the NWS issuing a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning (for landspouts).  The threat at any given location is very small.
•   Muggy and warm weather next week.  Perhaps hot, at times.

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Happy weekend, everyone

Not the best weekend forecast.

Not much has changed since yesterday.

As of 5 am, we have numerous showers and thunderstorms on the weather radars.

You can see the upper-level low rotating across the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.

Remember, low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.  All of this precipitation will pivot through the region over the coming days.

Rain may move in odd directions because of the upper-level low.

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Showers and thunderstorms will be an issue today and tomorrow.

If you have outdoor plans, then have a solid plan B.  Be flexible.  There will be rain on the weather radars.

Some of the showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain nd lightning.  It is summer.  Any storms that form can produce heavy rain.  Lighting is a threat, as well.  If you have lived around here, then you know this.

Organized severe weather is not in the forecast.  That doesn’t mean there can’t be a warning or two.  I will be off work, so please ensure you have multiple ways to receive your severe weather information.

Isolated severe weather is always possible during June and July.

The primary concern will be isolated damaging wind gusts and downburst winds.  These types of winds can last seconds to a few minutes.  They are difficult to issue a warning on.  Oftentimes, they can occur with little or no warning.  Just keep that in mind.

There will be some spin in the atmosphere from the upper-level low.  This could cause brief funnel clouds and perhaps even a landspout tornado.  These are usually weak, but can produce light damage.  If a tornado warning is issued, then seek shelter.

It will be warm and humid over the coming days. Highs will mostly be in the eighties.  Humid.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday into the middle of next week.  Perhaps the end of next week.

Both the GFS and EC long-range models are active into next weekend.  On and off showers and thunderstorms.

It likely won’t rain every day at every location, but there will likely be on and off showers and storms on radar, especially during the afternoon and evening.  During peak heating.

I will be monitoring this area of high pressure over the central United States as we move into next week.  Thunderstorms typically occur near the edge of the high-pressure system.  If we find ourselves under the high, then it will be dry, hot, and humid.

The placement of the high, during the summer months, will control our weather.

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Let’s examine the guidance rainfall probabilities.

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday (7 AM to 7 PM)

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Sunday night (7 pm to 7 AM)

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Monday (7 AM to 7 PM)

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Monday night (7 pm to 7 AM)

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Tuesday (7 AM to 7 PM)

Tuesday night (7 PM to 7 AM)

Wednedsay (7 AM to 7 PM)

Wednesday night (7 PM to 7 AM)

Thursday (7 AM to 7 PM)

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Generally, an unsettled weather forecast.  Warm and humid.

I know some farmers have not been able to get to their fields to plant corn.  This has been an issue because of wet ground conditions.

This weekend’s rain event won’t help those efforts.

 Hopefully, the pattern will calm down a bit by late June.  For now, however, the active pattern will continue.

Temperatures on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week will approach 90 degrees with heat index values in the 90s.

I can’t rule out some 100-degree heat index values.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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NAM 3K model..

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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The long-range GFS model

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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