Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 12th  through June 20th

Current risk:  LOW RISK.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:

The risk of tornadoes is low.  An upper-level low will be spinning over our region today through Sunday.  Occasionally, these types of weather systems can produce brief weak landspouts.  They can cause light damage to trees and property.

I can’t 100% rule out a tornado warning, but the actual threat at any given location is very small.

There could be some tropical and cold air funnels over the coming days.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Scattered lightning is possible on Thursday afternoon and night.  A higher chance on Friday through Saturday night.  Isolated lightning is possible on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  I will monitor next Thursday onward.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Thunderstorms during the summer months can produce isolated, damaging wind gusts.  Downburst winds.  This can occur with little or no warning.

Organized severe weather is not currently in the forecast.  As always, keep an eye on your Beau Dodson Weather app for updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are likely later this week and the weekend.  Some storms could produce heavy downpours.  There will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms will tap into that moisture and produce heavy downpours.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  LOW RISK.  Isolated 90-degree readings are possible on Thursday and Friday.   I will monitor next Wednesday and Thursday.

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE.    I am monitoring the middle of next week.  It will turn quite warm on us.  Heat index values could approach or exceed 100 degrees.  

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Clouds increase today.  Haze, as well.  A few sprinkles/showers.
•   It will be warm today into next week.
•   Showers and thunderstorms are expected from Friday into the weekend.
•   Locally heavy rain downpours.  Lightning, as well.
•   The most intense storms could produce strong wind gusts and pea-sized hail.  We are not anticipating organized severe weather.  Isolated downburst wind gusts are always possible during the summer months.

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Good day,

Well, the rain is returning to the forecast.  Unfortunately, I know many of you are tired of this rainy pattern.

Many weekends this year have been stormy/wet.  I still know farmers who have not planted their corn yet.

Clouds will thicken today.  Radar shows some light rain showers in southern Missouri.  I can’t rule out a sprinkle or light shower this morning and early afternoon.  A small chance of a thunderstorm later today.  Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Rain chances will begin to ramp up as we move through tonight and tomorrow.  I have high rain probabilities for Friday and Saturday.

In fact, the peak chances will occur during that time frame (FRI/SAT).

If you have outdoor plans, then have a solid plan B.  Be flexible.  There will be rain on the weather radars.

Some of the showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain nd lightning.  It is summer.  Any storms that form can produce heavy rain.  Lighting is a threat, as well.  If you have lived around here, then you know this.

Organized severe weather is not in the forecast.

Isolated severe weather is always possible during June and July.  The primary concern will be isolated damaging wind gusts and downburst winds.  These types of winds can last seconds to a few minutes.  They are difficult to issue a warning on.  Oftentimes, they can occur with little or no warning.  Just keep that in mind.

It will be warm and humid over the coming days. Highs will mostly be in the eighties.  Humid.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday into the middle of next week.  Perhaps the end of next week.

Both the GFS and EC long-range models are active into next weekend.  On and off showers and thunderstorms.

It likely won’t rain every day at every location, but there will likely be on and off showers and storms on radar, especially during the afternoon and evening.  During peak heating.

During the summer months, we often have MCS’s.  Thunderstorm complexes.  These typically move in from north northwest and move south southeast.  I will be watching for these MCS’s next week into next weekend.

Occasionally, these types of systems can produce strong winds and heavy rain.

I will be monitoring this area of high pressure over the central United States as we move into next week.  Thunderstorms typically occur near the edge of the high-pressure system.  If we find ourselves under the high, then it will be dry, hot, and humid.

The placement of the high, during the summer months, will control our weather.

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Let’s examine the rainfall probabilities.

Thursday night (7 AM to 7 PM)

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday (7 AM to 7 PM)

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Sunday night (7 pm to 7 AM)

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Monday (7 AM to 7 PM)

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Tuesday night (7 pm to 7 AM)

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Wednesday (7 AM to 7 PM)

Not the worst forecast, but not the best, either.

I know some farmers have not been able to get to their fields to plant corn.  This has been an issue because of wet ground conditions.

This weekend’s rain event won’t help those efforts.

 Hopefully, the pattern will calm down a bit by late June.  For now, however, the active pattern will continue.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

3K NAM model

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Hrr model..

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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