Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 11th  through June 18th

Current risk:  MONITOR.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment: A few strong thunderstorms are possible Friday into Sunday.  The risk of tornadoes is very low. 

A fairly typical summer pattern is expected over the coming weeks.  

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Isolated lightning is possible on Thursday night.  A higher chance on Friday through Sunday night.  Isolated lightning is possible on Monday, as well.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  LOW RISK.  Thunderstorms during the summer months can produce isolated, damaging wind gusts.  Downburst winds.  This can occur with little or no warning.

Organized severe weather appears unlikely.  I will monitor it.  As always, keep an eye on your Beau Dodson Weather app for updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are likely later this week and the weekend.  Some storms could produce heavy downpours.  There will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms will tap into that moisture and produce heavy downpours.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  LOW RISK.  Isolated 90-degree readings are possible on Thursday and Friday.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Dry conditions today through Thursday.  Great time to mow the yard!
•   Temperatures are expected to rise over the coming days.  A bit more humid each day, as well.
•   Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the forecast Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
•   Locally heavy rain is possible late this week and over the weekend.  Lightning, as well.
•   The most intense storms could produce strong wind gusts and pea-sized hail.  Overall, the risk of severe weather is low.

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Good day,

A decent weather day is on tap for the region.  I do not have any significant weather concerns today through Thursday afternoon.

There could be patchy fog at night.

Some haze is also possible from the Canadian wildfires.

A slow warming trend will develop over the coming days.  It will become quite warm by Thursday and Friday.  Increasingly humid, as well.

Our next storm system will be an upper-level low.  This will develop late Thursday night and Friday.  It will linger into early next week.

This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

It won’t rain all the time, but it will rain on and off.  Keep your outdoor plans flexible and have a plan B.  Then, if it rains, you will be prepared.

I have a small chance of thunderstorms Thursday night over mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Friday, just about anywhere in the region.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase from Friday night through Sunday night.  Becoming scattered on Monday.

Perhaps the highest rain probabilities will be Friday night through Saturday night.  Peaking on Saturday.

It won’t rain all the time.  There will be chances, however, through that time period.

Several thunderstorm complexes are likely to impact the region.

There will be a significant amount of moisture in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to tap into.

Let’s look at PWAT values.  What are PWATs?   PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.

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These are the PWAT values on the GFS model.  These are some decent PWAT values.  This equals locally heavy rain.

The purple and dark pink colors are the highest numbers.  You can see periods of higher numbers.

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Let’s look at the rain probabilities.

Thursday night (7 AM to 7 PM)

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday (7 AM to 7 PM)

Sunday night (7 pm to 7 AM)

Monday

Not the worst forecast, but not the best, either.

I know some farmers have not been able to get to their fields to plant corn.  This has been an issue because of wet ground conditions.

This weekend’s rain event won’t help the efforts.

 Hopefully, the pattern will calm down a bit by late June.  For now, however, the active pattern will continue.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model.

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EC model.  The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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