Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

.
I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

I am going to start going live during events.

I have a live stream running now (I am learning how to use the software).

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

.

🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 10th  through June 17th

Current risk:  MONITOR.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment: I will be watching late this week into the weekend.  Additional thunderstorms are likely.  At this time, it is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.  Monitor updates.

.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible today.  Lightning is possible Thursday night into the weekend.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  MONITOR.  I am monitoring today.  The risk is low.   I am monitoring Thursday night into the weekend.  Additional thunderstorms are likely.  It is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are likely later this week and the weekend.  Some storms could produce heavy rain.  There will be a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms will tap into that moisture and produce heavy downpours.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

.

A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

.

. 

.

.

.

Forecast discussion.    

•   Additional showers and thunderstorms today.  The rain is expected to taper off later today and this evening.
•   Mostly dry on Tuesday and Wednesday.
•   Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast late Thursday into the weekend.
•   Locally heavy rain will be possible late this week/weekend.  Lightning, as well.
•   A bit early to know if severe weather will be a concern this coming weekend.  Monitor updates, as always.

.

Good day,

I hope you had a nice weekend.  We did have showers and thunderstorms (some severe) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night.

Wind damage was reported in isolated areas.  There were even some brief low-end tornadoes on Saturday/Saturday night.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms moved across portions of the area late last night.

The heaviest storms were in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

We will have some additional showers and thunderstorms today.  The risk of severe weather will be low.

Gusty winds would be the concern.  Locally heavy rain and lightning, as well.

Thankfully, we dry out on Tuesday and Wednesday.  But that break won’t last long, unfortunately.

Rain chances are expected to return late Thursday night and continue on/off into at least Sunday.  Perhaps beyond Sunday.

This will be a multi-day rain event.  It won’t rain all the time.  There will be chances, however, through that time period.

Several thunderstorm complexes are likely to impact the region.

There will be a significant amount of moisture in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to tap into.

Let’s look at PWAT values.  What are PWATs?   PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.

.

Let’s look at the PWAT values on the GFS model.  These are some decent PWAT values.  This equals locally heavy rain.

The purple and dark pink colors are the highest numbers.

.

Let’s look at some rain probabilities.  These are the computer-generated numbers.

These may vary from my forecast.  I did update the numbers in my video at the top.  Therefore, these numbers may appear differently from those.

I have 60% from Friday to Sunday.  Peak chances may end up being on Friday night/Saturday.

Thursday night (7 AM to 7 PM)

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday (7 AM to 7 PM)

.

We are moving towards MCS season.

MCS’s are large summer thunderstorm complexes.  They bring most of our summer rainfall.

When we enter a northwest jetstream flow, MCS chances increase.  That is what I will be monitoring over the coming weeks.

Where does the northwest wind flow pattern develop?   That is the question.

MCS’s can bring heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.  They are common from June through late July.

It does not take much upper air energy to produce showers and thunderstorms during the month of June.

.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model.

.

GFS model.  The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

.

.

.

..

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.