Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

I am going to start going live during events.

I have a live stream running now (I am learning how to use the software).

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 6th  through June 13th

Current risk:  ISOLATED RISK.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:   There is a low risk of tornadoes today and Saturday.   Any tornado would be short-lived.

The greater concern will be a few reports of damaging wind gusts.

I am monitoring Sunday’s forecast.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is likely today through Saturday.

I am monitoring Sunday’s forecast.  A few storms are possible.

A chance of lightning on Monday/Monday night.

I am monitoring next Thursday night into the weekend.   Additional storms are possible.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.   There is a risk of severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow.  The primary concern will be damaging winds.  There is a low risk of an isolated tornado.

I am monitoring Sunday’s forecast.  Some of the data shows a few more storms.

I will monitor late next week/weekend.  Additional storms are possible.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED ISSUES.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are expected today into Saturday.  Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.  This could result in brief flooding issues.  Ditches overflowing, commonly flooded roadways, and so on.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today through tomorrow.
•   Locally, extremely heavy rainfall totals.
•   A few storms could be severe, with damaging winds being the primary concern.  A low-end tornado threat.
•   I am monitoring Sunday’s forecast.  Some of the latest data continues thunderstorm chances into Sunday.
•   Another chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday/Monday night along a weak front.
•   Currently, Tuesday through Thursday appear to be the best chances for a period of dry weather.
•   Watching late next week for more thunderstorms.

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Good morning,

An unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend.  Especially today and tomorrow.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop.  Some of these storms could produce torrential downpours.  We will also have a risk of severe weather.

Here is what the 5 am radars looked like.

We did have a few storms over our local area.

I am watching this complex of storms in Oklahoma.  It is moving eastward.

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As is usually the case, there are questions about the extent of the severe weather threat today.

I will be watching the line of storms in Oklahoma.  We will have to see how far north it extends.

Other storms, as you can see above, will just randomly pop up today.

The atmosphere will be somewhat unstable.  Instability (CAPE/fuel) will be sufficient for a few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds.

There will be some modest wind shear.  Wind shear is the turning of wind with height.  Wind shear is an increase in wind speed from the surface to higher up in the atmosphere.

That could lead to an isolated, short-lived tornado threat.

Monitor your app alerts.

Here is today’s severe weather outlook.  The dark green is where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a low-level one risk (marginal).  That is the lowest risk they have.

The yellow zone is a level two severe weather risk (slight risk).  The risk levels run from one to five.  Five being the highest.

The light green is where storms are possible, but they are expected to remain below severe levels.

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Here is the updated Saturday SPC severe weather outlook.  A level one and two risk blankets our region. The level one risk is in dark green.  The level two risk is in yellow.

There could be adjustments to this graphic.  Monitor updates.

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Finally, here is Sunday’s SPC severe weather outlook.  A level one and two risk.

This is new.  At one point, the severe storms were forecast to push south of the region by Sunday.  That could very well be the case, and I am not overly confident in the SPC’s outlook for Sunday.  I will monitor it.

There could be adjustments to this graphic.   It is still three days out.  Monitor updates.

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Again, rainfall totals will vary wildly.  Typical for June.

There will be showers and thunderstorms on the radar from today through at least Saturday.  It won’t rain all the time at any given location.  However, precipitation is expected to be visible on the weather radars through the period.

During the summer months, one county could have two to three inches of rain.  A neighboring county could remain mostly dry.  If you have lived in this area for any length of time, then you will know this.

If thunderstorms train over the same area, then this will enhance rainfall totals.

Generally, additional rainfall totals today through Saturday will range from 1.00″ to 2.00″.  Then, there will be pockets of much higher totals.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Double click to enlarge this graphic.  This hasn’t changed much over the last few days.  Some locations have already received these amounts.

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As mentioned above, rain chances will continue into at least Saturday (and maybe Sunday).

Have a plan B, just in case of rain this weekend.  Then, you will be prepared.

Let’s look at the latest rain probability graphics.  This will give you a decent idea of what we are looking at for each twelve-hour period (7 AM to 7 PM and 7 PM to 7 AM).

These graphics display the rain probability (% chances)

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday

Sunday night

Monday

Monday  night

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A front will push through the region on Monday/Monday night.  This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday is expected to be dry.  Rain chances will be less than ten percent.  We need a break from the rain.

I am watching next Friday through Monday for additional thunderstorm complexes.  MCS’s.

We are moving towards MCS season.

MCS’s are large summer thunderstorm complexes.  They bring most of our summer rainfall.

When we enter a northwest jetstream flow, MCS chances increase.  That is what I will be monitoring over the coming weeks.

Where does the northwest wind flow pattern develop?   That is the question.

MCS’s can bring heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.  They are common from June through late July.

It does not take much upper air energy to produce showers and thunderstorms during the month of June.  Thus, I will need to closely monitor next week’s forecast.  The week after, as well.

Here is the EC model lighting forecast for next weekend.

This is an indication of more thunderstorm activity in our region.  Some of these storms could be intense, if the data is correct.

I will be off from work next Friday through Sunday.  Make sure you have at least three to five methods for receiving severe weather information.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model.

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NAM 3k model.  The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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