Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I am going to start going live during events.

I have a live stream running now (I am learning how to use the software).

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 5th  through June 12th

Current risk:  LOW RISK.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:   There is a low risk of tornadoes on Friday and Saturday.   The greater concern will be a few reports of damaging wind gusts.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible today through Saturday.  Lightning is possible on Monday and Monday night.  I will monitor late next week.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.  There is a small risk of downburst winds today.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  The primary concern will be damaging winds.  There is a low risk of an isolated tornado.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED ISSUES.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are expected today into the weekend.  Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  This could result in brief flooding issues.  Ditches overflowing, commonly flooded roadways, and so on.

I increased the rain chances for Saturday.  It now appears the front will stall.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Scattered showers and thunderstorms today through Saturday.
•   Locally, extremely heavy rainfall totals.
•   A few storms could also be severe over the coming days.
•   Saturday is trending wetter.
•   Another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday/Monday night.
•   Watching late next week for more thunderstorms.

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Good morning,

There were some areas with extremely high rainfall totals overnight.  This was not a surprise.  We expected some big totals from slow-moving thunderstorms.

Check out some of these overnight rainfall numbers.

The heaviest totals fell in Alexander, Pulaski, Scott, and Mississippi Counties.

Over five inches in some locations.  This is typical for slow-moving summer thunderstorms.  The atmosphere is juiced.  Storms tap into the high moisture levels and can drop torrential rain.

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This is what radar looked like at 6 AM.  Showers and thunderstorms are moving west to east across the region.  Some of the storms were producing torrential downpours.

Avoid flooded roadways.

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The active weather pattern will continue into today.  It also now appears rain chances will linger into Saturday.

We had hoped the front would push south on Saturday, but the latest data keeps it farther north.  That means more showers and thunderstorms.

A few storms could produce strong wind gusts today.  The overall severe weather risk is low, but not zero.

The primary concern will be downburst winds from collapsing thunderstorms.

A greater risk of severe weather is expected to develop on Friday and Saturday.  See below.

The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.  Monitor your app alerts.

Here is today’s severe weather outlook.  The dark green is where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a low-level one risk (marginal).  That is the lowest risk they have.

The light green is where storms are possible, but they are expected to remain below severe levels.

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Here is the updated Friday SPC severe weather outlook.  A level one and two risk blankets our region. The level one risk is in dark green.  The level two risk is in yellow.

There could be adjustments to this graphic.  Monitor updates.

It appears peak thunderstorm chances will arrive during the mid-morning hours into the afternoon.

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Finally, here is Saturday’s SPC severe weather outlook.  A level one and two risk.

There could be adjustments to this graphic.   It is still three days out.  Monitor updates.

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Again, rainfall totals will vary wildly.  Typical for June.

There will be showers and thunderstorms on the radar from today through Saturday.  It won’t rain all the time at any given location.  However, precipitation is expected to be visible on the weather radars through the period.

During the summer months, one county could have two to three inches of rain.  A neighboring county could remain mostly dry.  If you have lived in this area for any length of time, then you will know this.

If thunderstorms train over the same area, then this will enhance rainfall totals.

Generally, additional rainfall totals today through Saturday will range from 1.00″ to 2.00″.  Then, there will be pockets of much higher totals.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Double click to enlarge this graphic.  This hasn’t changed much over the last few days.  Some locations have already received these amounts.

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As mentioned above, rain chances will continue into Saturday.  The front is going to be farther north.  We can’t seem to catch a break with these weekend rain events.

Have a plan B, just in case of rain this weekend.  Then, you will be prepared.

Let’s look at the latest rain probability graphics.  This will give you a decent idea of what we are looking at for each twelve-hour period (7 AM to 7 PM and 7 PM to 7 AM).

These graphics display the rain probability (% chances)

Thursday

Thursday  night

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday

Sunday  night

Monday

Monday night

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A front will push through the region on Monday/Monday night.  This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry.

I am watching next Friday through Monday for additional thunderstorm complexes.  MCS’s.

We are moving towards MCS season.

MCS’s are large summer thunderstorm complexes.  They bring most of our summer rainfall.

When we enter a northwest jetstream flow, MCS chances increase.  That is what I will be monitoring over the coming weeks.

Where does the northwest wind flow pattern develop?   That is the question.

MCS’s can bring heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.  They are common from June through late July.

It does not take much upper air energy to produce showers and thunderstorms during the month of June.  Thus, I will need to closely monitor next week’s forecast.  The week after, as well.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model.

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Hrrr model.  The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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The FV3 model. The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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